Decision Record

Each Decision Card is one dated call on one S&P 500 company: high-conviction buy, buy and watch, hold with no edge, sell, or insufficient evidence. The call is frozen on the day it is published, with the share price, the S&P 500 that day, the rationale, and the measured inputs. Twelve months later it is graded against those stored prices, never against a later rewrite of the rules. A Saturday publication still uses the prior session's close, and that is labelled on each row. When rationale wording is later upgraded, the change is logged as an amendment: the original freeze is preserved and the amended text is shown separately with a date stamp.

Page rendered October 27, 2026 at 11:37 PM Eastern. This stamp is when this HTML was built, not the prior session close labelled on each row.

Published calls

480

Names

411

Share of the S&P 500

82.5%

Written holds

196

Graded over twelve months

Hit rate

Not shown yet (0 of 30 graded)

A hit rate is shown only after 30 directional calls (high-conviction buy, buy and watch, or sell) have been graded over a full twelve-month horizon. So far 0 have been graded. Until then the dated list is the record, not a summary.

How a call is graded

Verdicts are made from business durability, what the price already expects, and measurable disconfirming conditions. Grading comes later.

Grading is relative to the S&P 500: the frozen share price on the row versus the frozen S&P 500 (SPY) entry already on that row, never today's prices or an absolute return alone.
A high-conviction buy or a buy-and-watch is a hit if the stock beat the S&P 500 over twelve months.
A sell is a hit if the stock lagged the S&P 500 over twelve months.
Hold is a written abstention from grading: it counts toward coverage of the S&P 500 and is never a hit or a miss.
Coverage is unique written names divided by the S&P 500 universe. A refusal (insufficient evidence) is not written, so it does not count. A bank, lender or insurer that receives a real call does count. Property trusts stay refused.
Returns are price only. Dividends are left out of both the stock and the S&P 500.
Operating companies (rules v4) are read from free cash flow. Banks and lenders (bank-v4) and insurance underwriters (insurer-v4) are read from common equity, priced against the newest book value on file, and from the return the price already requires. Those are separate standards: a bank call does not amend an operating company call. Property trusts, insurance brokers, incomplete filings and negative free cash flow on an operating company stay refused. The analysis page still does not show a Graham or discounted-cash-flow intrinsic for a bank or insurer.
A bank or insurer row can also carry reported readings: for a bank the efficiency ratio as filed, the common equity tier 1 ratio and the net interest margin the bank reports, and for a property and casualty insurer the combined ratio it reports, each only where the company's report has been checked. They are shown beside the call and are never part of the score, so a row can be read with or without them. A reading that could not be read is listed as not shown, with the reason, rather than left out.
Each frozen row keeps its rationale, the input snapshot, an honest price-as-of label, and the S&P 500 entry price, so relative performance can be audited. A weekend or holiday publish dates the price to the last NYSE session, never the calendar day of publication.
Rationale wording is versioned by amendment. A rules upgrade writes a new freeze that preserves the original rationale and shows the amended text with a dated stamp. If the original freeze cannot be recovered, the page says so rather than claiming the text was never rewritten. The amended rationale uses the same reason list as the live card for that rules version (prefer two real reasons; a third only when it adds a distinct company-specific input). A superseded prior freeze does not count again in the track record. The original freeze is labelled with its rules version (for example at freeze, v1), never left as an unlabeled generic block.
Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when the call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict.
Call weakening is a visible state on a row, not a change of verdict. When two or more of a call's own disconfirm conditions are already broken when it is issued, the row says how many are broken and which. It never moves the call. A single broken condition is still listed as already broken.
The return a call is built on differs by kind of company. For banks and insurers (return on equity) it is weighted toward the latest filed year: half the latest, three tenths the prior year and a fifth the oldest of the last three, and the row says when the call leans on the weighted figure because the latest year and the average sit far apart. For operating companies (return on invested capital) it is the latest fiscal year, and the average of the last three years and the direction are shown beside it as a reading and never scored.
Inputs are checked before a call is issued. When the income statement grades B or better while that return is under 4 percent, the latest year is recomputed from the company's own filed statements. If the filing agrees, the call proceeds and the row says it was checked. If it differs, the filed figure is used and the row says it was corrected. If it cannot be checked, no call is issued and the name is left as it was.
Each row states the period its filings run through. A call is not issued on data that has gone stale: when the report a company should have filed by now (its next quarterly or annual report, by its own filer status, plus a few days) is not in the inputs, the card reads data stale, says whether that report is still awaited or is already filed and not yet in our data, and no call is written. A call already on this page is never changed by that.

Rules versions

Frozen originals are never rewritten. A rules upgrade that leaves a call's verdict unchanged amends it: the original prose stays, labelled with the version it was written under, and the amended text is shown beside it. An upgrade that changes the verdict writes a new dated call and leaves the earlier one exactly as it was published, graded on its own. bank-v4 and insurer-v4 are the bank and insurer standards. They do not amend an operating company call.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

v1: Generic band-language rationale. No already-broken flags. Calendar-day price labels.
v2: Concrete Why citing filed figures; already-broken watch conditions; NYSE session-close price labels.
v3: Amended rationale matches the live two-reason preference; a third line only when it adds a distinct company input. Operating companies only.
bank-v3: Bank and lender standard, parallel to v3, not a successor. Durability is return on equity (averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file), book value per share, the share count at a small weight because book value per share already reflects dilution, and assets per dollar of equity. Equity is common equity, after preferred stock, and the price is read against the newest book value on file rather than the last fiscal year's. The price is the return on equity it requires, with growth in that identity held at 6%. A price under 0.8 times book while return on equity is below 10% is a writedown, not a bargain. Does not amend a v3 call.
insurer-v3: Insurance underwriter standard, parallel to v3 and to bank-v3. Book value per share outweighs return on equity, which is averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file. Equity is common equity and the price is read against the newest book value on file. Filed revenue per dollar of equity replaces assets per dollar of equity. Does not amend a v3 or bank-v3 call.
v4: Operating companies, successor to v3. The return on invested capital the card scores is still the latest fiscal year's, as under v3; the card now prints the three-year average and a direction beside it as a reading, and never scores them. (Weighting the earlier years into the score was built and measured on the S&P 500 and moved 23 verdicts with nothing to say which side was right, so it was not kept.) Also new: a scores legend; a check of the return against the filed figures when the income statement grades B or better beside a return under 4%; a call weakening state when two or more disconfirm conditions are already broken (the verdict is unchanged by it); the period the filings run through; and a stale-data rule tied to each company's filing deadlines. Why: a healthy income statement beside a tiny return can be a bad feed figure, and a call on filings a full report out of date should not read as confident. Amends the open v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
v5: Operating companies, successor to v4, decided by the owner after measuring each rule on the S&P 500 (docs/decision-v5-measurement.md). A High-conviction buy must also show a lasting return (return on invested capital: median of the last three measured years at least 10% and no year under 8%), net debt of at most five years of free cash flow, and, for a cyclical company whose margins are in the peak zone of its own filed years, a High-conviction buy on its median margins; a call that fails any of these reads Buy, watch and names the reason. A one-off cash margin spike (the last four quarters over 1.5 times the median fiscal year and more than 5 points above it) is read at the median margin on today's revenue. Revenue growth makes a price read as cheaper only if revenue grew in at least two of the three years, is not measured from a slump year (revenue and operating margin both collapsed; a divestiture is not a slump) and counts at most 25% a year. Brokers holding client cash and asset managers with an insurance balance sheet (IBKR, HOOD, APO, KKR) get no call. Why: on v4, 79 of about 500 companies read High-conviction buy, including peak-cycle earnings, one-off cash windfalls, heavily indebted companies and cash flows the card cannot read; v5 measured 45 before the owner softened three thresholds. Amends the open v4 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v4 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
v6: Operating companies, successor to v5. A jump in the cash margin that operating profit backs is read as growth, not as a one-off: when operating margin rose by at least half as much as the cash margin, free cash flow is no more than 1.1 times operating profit, and the company is not a cyclical business in the peak zone of its own filed years, the price is read against the cash flow as it stands instead of the median margin. Customer deposits, an inventory release and a cut in capital spending raise cash without profit and are still read at the median margin. Why: measured on the S&P 500, the v5 rule discounted companies whose margins had genuinely improved; of the 40 companies it flags, two verdicts change (Howmet and Hasbro, Hold to Buy, watch). Amends the open v5 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v5 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
bank-v4: Bank and lender standard, successor to bank-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average over the filed years, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4. The newest balance sheet is also read when the quarterly report does not state the preferred stock amount, by carrying the last known amount forward while the number of preferred shares is unchanged (exact, since preferred stock sits at a fixed amount per share), and a cover-page share count dated up to 45 days after the balance sheet is accepted and dated on the card (it was 7). Why: one year of a loss, or one boom year, should not decide the return the price is read against, and Bank of America was being priced on a March 31 balance sheet with June 30 filed. Amends the open bank-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen bank-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
insurer-v4: Insurance underwriter standard, successor to insurer-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4, and so are the preferred stock carry-forward and the 45 day cover-page share count (Cincinnati Financial files no share count in its balance sheet; its cover count is dated 22 days after June 30). Amends the open insurer-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen insurer-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.

Open calls

Every published call that has not yet reached its twelve-month date, newest first. A name appears more than once when its verdict changed and the earlier call is still open. Expand each row's evidence for the rationale and the inputs frozen that day.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

Showing 201 to 250 of 480 open calls. Journal read October 27, 2026 at 11:37 PM Eastern.

Symbol	Call	Published	Price at the call	Price as of	S&P 500 entry	Horizon
NOW	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	156.85	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 20.2 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 78.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +47.9% a year; the share count is growing at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.1% a year for ten years, which is 9.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+22.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 40.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 78.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +47.9% a year; the share count is growing at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.3%, 3-year average +11.6%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.5% a year for ten years, which is 6.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+22.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 44.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 78 of 100 Demandingness 45 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.3%, 3-year average +11.6%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +47.9% Share count, yearly change +1.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +31.0% Growth the price implies +15.5% a year Revenue growth on file +22.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 156.85, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
WYNN	Buy, watch Heavy debt	October 23, 2026	72.82	October 23, 2026	762.56	12 months
Heavy debt. Net debt is 11.6 years of free cash flow, and operating profit covers interest 2.0 times: more than 10 years with less than 3 times cover. The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 11.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 2.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 62.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at +2.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +10.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -1.0% a year for ten years, which is +24.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+23.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Durability at 62.8 of 100 with demandingness at 0 of 100 is sound enough to own without being extreme (the price implies -1.0% free cash flow growth a year against +23.9% revenue growth on file), so the call is to buy and keep watching the remaining-true facts. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 62.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 2.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +10.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.6%, 3-year average +9.7%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -2.6% a year for ten years, which is 4.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 63 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.6%, 3-year average +9.7%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -2.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +10.7% Growth the price implies -2.6% a year Revenue growth on file +2.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 72.82, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.56 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.6%).
CASY	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	704.43	October 23, 2026	762.48	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.9 years of free cash flow; interest paid is not in the filings feed, so coverage is not shown. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 69.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.3% a year for ten years, which is 10.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+5.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 74.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 69.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.6%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +17.2% a year for ten years, which is 12.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+5.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 77.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (July 31) Durability 69 of 100 Demandingness 78 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +12.6%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +22.9% Share count, yearly change -0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.5% Growth the price implies +17.2% a year Revenue growth on file +5.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 704.43, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.48
GNRC	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	187.02	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +6.3%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +12.8%, revenue -2.7%, ceiling +12.3%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 2.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 6.2 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 49.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +6.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.8% a year for ten years, which is 16.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-2.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 71.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 49.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +6.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +6.3%, 3-year average +8.3%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +12.8% a year for ten years, which is 15.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-2.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 69.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 50 of 100 Demandingness 70 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +6.3%, 3-year average +8.3%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.5% Growth the price implies +12.8% a year Revenue growth on file -2.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 187.02, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +6.3%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +12.8%, revenue -2.7%, ceiling +12.3%).
HSIC	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	85.61	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 6.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 64.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +9.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.8% a year for ten years, which is 5.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+1.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 64.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +9.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.1%, 3-year average +9.3%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.8% a year for ten years, which is 5.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+1.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 41.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 65 of 100 Demandingness 42 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.1%, 3-year average +9.3%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +9.3% Share count, yearly change -4.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.8% Growth the price implies +6.8% a year Revenue growth on file +1.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 85.61, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.1%).
SJM	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	131.16	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 8.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 67 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +17.0% a year; the share count is growing at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -4.8% a year for ten years, which is 6.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 63.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +17.0% a year; the share count is growing at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.1%, 3-year average +8.3%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.7% a year for ten years, which is 3.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (July 31) Durability 63 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.1%, 3-year average +8.3%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +17.0% Share count, yearly change +0.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.9% Growth the price implies +5.7% a year Revenue growth on file +2.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 131.16, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.1%).
APH	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	73.87	October 23, 2026	762.74	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v4) Business durability scores 89 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +34.2% a year; the share count is growing at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +29.5%, 3-year average +23.4%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 6.0 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +17.9% a year for ten years, which is 4.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+22.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 63.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 89 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +34.2% a year; the share count is growing at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +29.5%, 3-year average +23.4%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 6.0 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +16.9% a year for ten years, which is 5.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+22.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 47.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 47 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +29.5%, 3-year average +23.4%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +34.2% Share count, yearly change +1.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.9% Growth the price implies +16.9% a year Revenue growth on file +22.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 73.87, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.74
MAR	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	394.89	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 5.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 93.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +25.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.1% a year for ten years, which is 5.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 93.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +25.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +25.6%, 3-year average +27.1%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.5% a year for ten years, which is 6.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 57.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 94 of 100 Demandingness 58 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +25.6%, 3-year average +27.1%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +14.6% Share count, yearly change -5.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.6% Growth the price implies +14.5% a year Revenue growth on file +8.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 394.89, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64
NWS	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	34.07	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 57.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.6% a year for ten years, which is 4.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 46.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 57.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +7.0%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.5% a year for ten years, which is 5.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 48.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 57 of 100 Demandingness 49 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +7.0%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -1.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +9.0% Growth the price implies +9.5% a year Revenue growth on file +4.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 34.07, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.7%).
BMY	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	61.47	October 23, 2026	762.48	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.0 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 8.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v5) Business durability scores 76 of 100 because return on invested capital is +18.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +2.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +18.4%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 6.1 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -0.3% a year for ten years, which is 1.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+1.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 76 of 100 because return on invested capital is +18.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +2.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +18.4%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 6.1 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -0.6% a year for ten years, which is 2.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+1.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +18.4%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +2.9% Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +23.3% Growth the price implies -0.6% a year Revenue growth on file +1.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 61.47, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.48
KMB	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	109.63	October 23, 2026	762.55	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 10.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 67 of 100 because return on invested capital is +21.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -3.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.2% a year for ten years, which is 12.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-6.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 67 of 100 because return on invested capital is +21.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -3.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +21.5%, 3-year average +25.3%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.7% a year for ten years, which is 14.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-6.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 59.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 67 of 100 Demandingness 59 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +21.5%, 3-year average +25.3%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -3.7% Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.0% Growth the price implies +7.7% a year Revenue growth on file -6.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 109.63, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.55 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -3.7%).
XYZ	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	77.26	October 23, 2026	762.74	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 86.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v5) Business durability scores 58.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 5.3 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +22.4% a year for ten years, which is 11.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+11.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 86.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 58.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 5.3 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +22.1% a year for ten years, which is 10.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+11.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 86.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 59 of 100 Demandingness 86 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.2% Growth the price implies +22.1% a year Revenue growth on file +11.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 77.26, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.74
TECH	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	72.58	October 23, 2026	762.74	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.5%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +18.1%, revenue +2.2%, ceiling +17.2%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 0.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 28.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 68.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.1% a year for ten years, which is 15.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 79.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 68.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.5%, 3-year average +9.1%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.1% a year for ten years, which is 15.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 79.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 68 of 100 Demandingness 79 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.5%, 3-year average +9.1%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +8.2% Share count, yearly change -0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.7% Growth the price implies +18.1% a year Revenue growth on file +2.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 72.58, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.74 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.5%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +18.1%, revenue +2.2%, ceiling +17.2%).
LOW	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	199.66	October 23, 2026	762.55	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 6.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 81.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +26.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +6.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.8% a year for ten years, which is 7.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-3.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 34.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 81.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +26.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +6.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +26.9%, 3-year average +32.6%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.7% a year for ten years, which is 8.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-3.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 36.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 82 of 100 Demandingness 37 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +26.9%, 3-year average +32.6%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +6.7% Share count, yearly change -2.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +7.7% Growth the price implies +4.7% a year Revenue growth on file -3.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 199.66, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.55
GD	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	349.47	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.5 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 16.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 66.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +5.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.9% a year for ten years, which is 7.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+10.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 17.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 66.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +5.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.8%, 3-year average +12.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.5% a year for ten years, which is 6.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+10.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 18.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 67 of 100 Demandingness 19 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.8%, 3-year average +12.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +5.0% Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.8% Growth the price implies +3.5% a year Revenue growth on file +10.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 349.47, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71
PTC	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	194.09	October 23, 2026	762.50	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 17.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 82.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +16.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +39.0% a year; the share count is growing at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.5% a year for ten years, which is 2.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 48.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 82.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +16.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +39.0% a year; the share count is growing at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +16.1%, 3-year average +11.7%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 4.4 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.6% a year for ten years, which is 2.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 49 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 82 of 100 Demandingness 49 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +16.1%, 3-year average +11.7%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +39.0% Share count, yearly change +0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +31.7% Growth the price implies +9.6% a year Revenue growth on file +12.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 194.09, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.50
TSLA	Sell, exit	October 23, 2026	375.37	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 20 of 100 (low). The strongest reading is trailing free cash flow margin at 39.4 of 100. The price implies free cash flow growth of +43.7% a year for ten years, which is +38.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing. That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. A weak business whose price still assumes fast growth is the only sell this version issues. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 18.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +4.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -21.8% a year; the share count is growing at 5.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +4.7%, 3-year average +10.0%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 5.3 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +52.5% a year for ten years, which is 47.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+5.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q3 2026 (September 30) Durability 19 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +4.7%, 3-year average +10.0%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -21.8% Share count, yearly change +5.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.2% Growth the price implies +52.5% a year Revenue growth on file +5.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 375.37, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
DVN	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	51.28	October 23, 2026	762.09	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -5.1%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +17.1%, revenue -3.6%, ceiling +11.4%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 7.0 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 9.2 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 54.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -5.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +16.0% a year for ten years, which is 19.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-3.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 75.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 54.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -5.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +17.7%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 4.6 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +17.1% a year for ten years, which is 20.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-3.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 77.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 55 of 100 Demandingness 78 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +17.7%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -5.1% Share count, yearly change -1.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +7.5% Growth the price implies +17.1% a year Revenue growth on file -3.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 51.28, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.09 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -5.1%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +17.1%, revenue -3.6%, ceiling +11.4%).
BKR	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	55.52	October 23, 2026	762.74	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 77.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +50.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +15.9%, 3-year average +14.2%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.0% a year for ten years, which is 3.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 78 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +15.9%, 3-year average +14.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +50.9% Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.3% Growth the price implies +6.0% a year Revenue growth on file +9.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 55.52, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.74
UPS	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	100.25	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 6.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 50.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +16.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -15.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.3% a year for ten years, which is 7.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-4.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 33.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 50.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +16.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -15.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +16.3%, 3-year average +17.2%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.3% a year for ten years, which is 8.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-4.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 35.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 50 of 100 Demandingness 36 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +16.3%, 3-year average +17.2%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -15.1% Share count, yearly change -0.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +6.1% Growth the price implies +4.3% a year Revenue growth on file -4.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 100.25, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -15.1%).
GEN	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	25.02	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 83.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +30.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +30.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -4.8% a year for ten years, which is 19.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+14.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 83.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +30.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +30.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.8%, 3-year average +11.0%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -2.3% a year for ten years, which is 17.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+14.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (June 30) Durability 83 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.8%, 3-year average +11.0%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +30.7% Share count, yearly change -2.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +30.5% Growth the price implies -2.3% a year Revenue growth on file +14.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 25.02, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71
INTC	Sell, exit	October 23, 2026	86.63	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 13.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 3.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 13.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is 0.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 6.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +40.4% a year for ten years, which is 46.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-5.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 13.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is 0.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 6.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.0%. Return on invested capital: latest 0.0%, 3-year average -0.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +36.2% a year for ten years, which is 41.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-5.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 14 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest -0.0%, 3-year average -0.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +6.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.0% Growth the price implies +36.2% a year Revenue growth on file -5.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 86.63, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71
MCHP	Sell, exit	October 23, 2026	74.53	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 36 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -40.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +16.2% a year for ten years, which is 33.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-17.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 75.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 36 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -40.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +3.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 3.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.9% a year for ten years, which is 33.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-17.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 75.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (June 30) Durability 36 of 100 Demandingness 75 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +3.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -40.7% Share count, yearly change -0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.7% Growth the price implies +15.9% a year Revenue growth on file -17.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 74.53, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the share count is already not growing (latest yearly change -0.2%).
WDC	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	354.55	October 23, 2026	762.56	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 27.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v5) Business durability scores 67.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +0.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +44.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 24.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +76.4% a year for ten years, which is 51.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+25.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 82.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +44.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 24.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.9% a year for ten years, which is 21.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-5.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 75.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 83 of 100 Demandingness 75 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +44.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +3.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +27.2% Growth the price implies +15.9% a year Revenue growth on file -5.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 354.55, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.56 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +15.9%, revenue -5.7%, ceiling +9.3%).
IFF	Sell, exit	October 23, 2026	93.98	October 23, 2026	762.55	12 months
Debt: net debt is 9.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 35.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +17.4% a year for ten years, which is 21.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-4.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 77.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 35.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +3.1%, 3-year average +2.6%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.7% a year for ten years, which is 23.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-4.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 80.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 35 of 100 Demandingness 80 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +3.1%, 3-year average +2.6%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.4% Growth the price implies +18.7% a year Revenue growth on file -4.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 93.98, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.55 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: trailing free cash flow margin is already above 5% (latest +5.4%).
TJX	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	145.54	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 88.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +32.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +25.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.4% a year for ten years, which is 3.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 88.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +32.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +25.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +32.5%, 3-year average +31.7%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.9% a year for ten years, which is 5.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 53.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 53 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +32.5%, 3-year average +31.7%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +25.1% Share count, yearly change -1.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +9.4% Growth the price implies +11.9% a year Revenue growth on file +6.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 145.54, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
HPE	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	57.58	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 28.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 37.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.4% a year for ten years, which is 1.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 43.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 37.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +3.6%, 3-year average +6.1%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.6% a year for ten years, in line with the revenue growth already on file (+6.4% a year). That is a demandingness score of 41.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (July 31) Durability 38 of 100 Demandingness 41 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +3.6%, 3-year average +6.1%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +1.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +9.9% Growth the price implies +6.6% a year Revenue growth on file +6.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 57.58, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +3.6%).
MO	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	74.90	October 23, 2026	762.81	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 10.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 95.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +47.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 2.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +44.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.5% a year for ten years, which is 2.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 28.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 95.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +47.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 2.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +44.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +47.8%, 3-year average +47.7%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.6% a year for ten years, which is 3.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 31.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 95 of 100 Demandingness 31 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +47.8%, 3-year average +47.7%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -2.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +44.6% Growth the price implies +2.6% a year Revenue growth on file -0.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 74.90, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.81
NUE	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	263.05	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.5%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +16.3%, revenue -7.8%, ceiling +7.2%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 2.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 28.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 56.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 3.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.4% a year for ten years, which is 23.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 74.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 56.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 3.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.5%, 3-year average +14.1%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 5.5 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +16.3% a year for ten years, which is 24.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 76.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 56 of 100 Demandingness 76 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.5%, 3-year average +14.1%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -3.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +4.4% Growth the price implies +16.3% a year Revenue growth on file -7.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 263.05, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.5%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +16.3%, revenue -7.8%, ceiling +7.2%).
SWKS	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	82.93	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.9%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +13.5%, revenue -9.3%, ceiling +5.7%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 1.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 61.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +10.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.2% a year for ten years, which is 23.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-9.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 72.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 61.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +10.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.9%, 3-year average +11.3%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 3.4 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.5% a year for ten years, which is 22.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-9.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 71.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 62 of 100 Demandingness 71 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.9%, 3-year average +11.3%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +8.1% Share count, yearly change -2.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +10.2% Growth the price implies +13.5% a year Revenue growth on file -9.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 82.93, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.9%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +13.5%, revenue -9.3%, ceiling +5.7%).
KEYS	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	315.60	October 23, 2026	762.55	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 12.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 75.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +11.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +17.6% a year for ten years, which is 17.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 78.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 75.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +11.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.6%, 3-year average +16.4%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 4.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.9% a year for ten years, which is 16.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 75.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (July 31) Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 75 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.6%, 3-year average +16.4%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +11.8% Share count, yearly change -1.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +22.3% Growth the price implies +15.9% a year Revenue growth on file -0.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 315.60, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.55 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +15.9%, revenue -0.3%, ceiling +14.7%).
CIEN	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	323.37	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.0 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 12.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 55.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +22.6% a year for ten years, which is 13.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 87.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 55.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.2%, 3-year average +6.8%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +21.9% a year for ten years, which is 12.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 85.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (July 31) Durability 56 of 100 Demandingness 86 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.2%, 3-year average +6.8%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -1.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +13.5% Growth the price implies +21.9% a year Revenue growth on file +9.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 323.37, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.2%).
CVS	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	93.85	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.7%). \| Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -17.0%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 4.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 31.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -17.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +2.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -2.3% a year for ten years, which is 9.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 31.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -17.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +2.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +5.7%, 3-year average +6.1%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -1.6% a year for ten years, which is 9.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 32 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +5.7%, 3-year average +6.1%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -17.0% Share count, yearly change -0.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +2.8% Growth the price implies -1.6% a year Revenue growth on file +7.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 93.85, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.7%). Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -17.0%).
NWSA	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	31.05	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 57.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.1% a year for ten years, which is 3.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 57.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +7.0%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.2% a year for ten years, which is 4.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 45.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 57 of 100 Demandingness 46 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +7.0%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -1.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +9.0% Growth the price implies +8.2% a year Revenue growth on file +4.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 31.05, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.7%).
HRL	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	21.13	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +6.4%). \| Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -15.3%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 2.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 10.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 34 of 100 because return on invested capital is +6.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -15.3% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.7% a year for ten years, which is 3.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-1.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 31.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 34 of 100 because return on invested capital is +6.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -15.3% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +6.4%, 3-year average +7.4%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.7% a year for ten years, which is 4.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-1.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 34.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (July 31) Durability 34 of 100 Demandingness 34 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +6.4%, 3-year average +7.4%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -15.3% Share count, yearly change +0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +6.4% Growth the price implies +3.7% a year Revenue growth on file -1.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 21.13, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +6.4%). Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -15.3%).
NFLX	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	66.61	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.5 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 16.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 95.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +35.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +109.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.3% a year for ten years, which is 1.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 52.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 95.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +35.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +109.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +35.6%, 3-year average +28.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.7% a year for ten years, which is 2.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 95 of 100 Demandingness 51 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +35.6%, 3-year average +28.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +109.5% Share count, yearly change -1.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +23.1% Growth the price implies +10.7% a year Revenue growth on file +12.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 66.61, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64
AME	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	240.84	October 23, 2026	762.81	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 21.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 79.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +19.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.8% a year for ten years, which is 7.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 56.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 79.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +19.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +13.0%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.3% a year for ten years, which is 7.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 79 of 100 Demandingness 56 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +13.0%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +19.2% Share count, yearly change -0.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +23.2% Growth the price implies +13.3% a year Revenue growth on file +6.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 240.84, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.81
DG	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	133.43	October 23, 2026	762.09	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.5 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 12.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 60 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +86.8% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.5% a year for ten years, which is 1.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 31.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 60 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +86.8% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.2%, 3-year average +7.0%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.4% a year for ten years, which is 0.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 33.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 60 of 100 Demandingness 34 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.2%, 3-year average +7.0%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +86.8% Share count, yearly change +0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +4.6% Growth the price implies +3.4% a year Revenue growth on file +4.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 133.43, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.09 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.2%).
ITW	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	275.80	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.0 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 14.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 92.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.6% a year for ten years, which is 11.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 67.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 92.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +29.6%, 3-year average +30.8%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.7% a year for ten years, which is 11.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 68 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 68 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +29.6%, 3-year average +30.8%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +14.2% Share count, yearly change -1.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.7% Growth the price implies +11.7% a year Revenue growth on file +0.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 275.80, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71
PNR	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	55.48	October 23, 2026	762.50	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 12.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 78.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +14.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +41.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +16.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.3% a year for ten years, which is 0.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 28.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 78.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +14.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +41.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +16.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +14.9%, 3-year average +13.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.0% a year for ten years, which is 1.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 29.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 79 of 100 Demandingness 30 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +14.9%, 3-year average +13.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +41.3% Share count, yearly change -0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +16.8% Growth the price implies +2.0% a year Revenue growth on file +0.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 55.48, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.50
KHC	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	24.83	October 23, 2026	762.55	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 63.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +38.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -6.3% a year for ten years, which is 4.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (-2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 63.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +38.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +5.7%, 3-year average +6.0%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -5.6% a year for ten years, which is 3.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (-2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 64 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +5.7%, 3-year average +6.0%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +38.0% Share count, yearly change -1.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +15.3% Growth the price implies -5.6% a year Revenue growth on file -2.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 24.83, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.55 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.7%).
CMCSA	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	22.57	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 4.2 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v5) Business durability scores 74.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +14.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -13.7% a year for ten years, which is 14.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+0.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 74.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +14.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -13.8% a year for ten years, which is 14.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+0.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 74 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +22.9% Share count, yearly change -5.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +14.3% Growth the price implies -13.8% a year Revenue growth on file +0.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 22.57, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.7%).
DIS	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	112.78	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 8.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 62.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +358.2% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.1% a year for ten years, which is 4.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 47.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 62.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +358.2% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.5%, 3-year average +6.2%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.1% a year for ten years, which is 5.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 63 of 100 Demandingness 50 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.5%, 3-year average +6.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +358.2% Share count, yearly change +0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.4% Growth the price implies +10.1% a year Revenue growth on file +4.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 112.78, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.5%).
CSCO	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	106.14	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.7 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 10.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 61 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -18.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +20.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.5% a year for ten years, which is 10.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+3.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 72.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 61 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -18.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +20.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +19.1%, 3-year average +18.6%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.4% a year for ten years, which is 10.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+3.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 72.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (July 31) Durability 61 of 100 Demandingness 73 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +19.1%, 3-year average +18.6%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -18.0% Share count, yearly change -1.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +20.2% Growth the price implies +14.4% a year Revenue growth on file +3.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 106.14, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -18.0%).
FTV	Hold, no edge Call weakening 3 of 4	October 23, 2026	60.61	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Call weakening: 3 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.7%). \| Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -0.8%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +5.8%, revenue -10.6%, ceiling +4.4%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 3.0 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 6.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 50 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -0.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +24.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.6% a year for ten years, which is 15.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-10.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 50 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -0.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +24.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +5.7%, 3-year average +4.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.8% a year for ten years, which is 16.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-10.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 54.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 50 of 100 Demandingness 55 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +5.7%, 3-year average +4.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -0.8% Share count, yearly change -3.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +24.4% Growth the price implies +5.8% a year Revenue growth on file -10.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 60.61, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.7%). Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -0.8%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +5.8%, revenue -10.6%, ceiling +4.4%).
TSN	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	56.57	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 6.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 3.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 51.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +15.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +2.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.2% a year for ten years, which is 3.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 35.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 51.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +15.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +2.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +3.6%, 3-year average +2.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.6% a year for ten years, which is 4.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 52 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +3.6%, 3-year average +2.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +15.8% Share count, yearly change -0.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +2.1% Growth the price implies +5.6% a year Revenue growth on file +0.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 56.57, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +3.6%).
TXN	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	283.80	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -27.1%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +31.2%, revenue -4.1%, ceiling +10.9%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 4.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 62.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -27.1% a year; the share count is growing at 0.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +19.4% a year for ten years, which is 23.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 81.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 56.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -27.1% a year; the share count is growing at 0.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +12.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +19.8%, 3-year average +22.0%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +31.2% a year for ten years, which is 35.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-4.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 57 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +19.8%, 3-year average +22.0%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -27.1% Share count, yearly change 0.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +12.1% Growth the price implies +31.2% a year Revenue growth on file -4.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 283.80, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -27.1%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +31.2%, revenue -4.1%, ceiling +10.9%).
UNH	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	424.13	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.6 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 44.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -11.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.2% a year for ten years, which is 8.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+11.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 18 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 44.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -11.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.3%, 3-year average +17.0%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 5.7 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.9% a year for ten years, which is 6.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+11.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 22.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 45 of 100 Demandingness 22 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.3%, 3-year average +17.0%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -11.5% Share count, yearly change -1.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.2% Growth the price implies +4.9% a year Revenue growth on file +11.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 424.13, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -11.5%).
HAL	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	34.95	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.0 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 8.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 67.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 2.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.6% a year for ten years, which is 1.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+3.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 36.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 67.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 2.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.7%, 3-year average +17.9%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.4% a year for ten years, which is 2.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+3.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 38.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 68 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.7%, 3-year average +17.9%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -2.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +7.7% Growth the price implies +5.4% a year Revenue growth on file +3.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 34.95, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71
MCO	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	481.42	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 14.1 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 95.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +30.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +33.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +36.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.8% a year for ten years, in line with the revenue growth already on file (+12.2% a year). That is a demandingness score of 53.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 95.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +30.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +33.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +36.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +30.4%, 3-year average +25.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +12.2% a year for ten years, in line with the revenue growth already on file (+12.2% a year). That is a demandingness score of 53.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q3 2026 (September 30) Durability 95 of 100 Demandingness 54 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +30.4%, 3-year average +25.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +33.2% Share count, yearly change -1.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +36.4% Growth the price implies +12.2% a year Revenue growth on file +12.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 481.42, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64

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Source: company filings via Yahoo Finance fundamentals, live prices via Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 via the SPY fund. Rules version v6. Returns are price only.