Decision Record

Each Decision Card is one dated call on one S&P 500 company: high-conviction buy, buy and watch, hold with no edge, sell, or insufficient evidence. The call is frozen on the day it is published, with the share price, the S&P 500 that day, the rationale, and the measured inputs. Twelve months later it is graded against those stored prices, never against a later rewrite of the rules. A Saturday publication still uses the prior session's close, and that is labelled on each row. When rationale wording is later upgraded, the change is logged as an amendment: the original freeze is preserved and the amended text is shown separately with a date stamp.

Page rendered October 30, 2026 at 8:37 AM Eastern. This stamp is when this HTML was built, not the prior session close labelled on each row.

Published calls

489

Names

413

Share of the S&P 500

82.9%

Written holds

200

Graded over twelve months

Hit rate

Not shown yet (0 of 30 graded)

A hit rate is shown only after 30 directional calls (high-conviction buy, buy and watch, or sell) have been graded over a full twelve-month horizon. So far 0 have been graded. Until then the dated list is the record, not a summary.

How a call is graded

Verdicts are made from business durability, what the price already expects, and measurable disconfirming conditions. Grading comes later.

Grading is relative to the S&P 500: the frozen share price on the row versus the frozen S&P 500 (SPY) entry already on that row, never today's prices or an absolute return alone.
A high-conviction buy or a buy-and-watch is a hit if the stock beat the S&P 500 over twelve months.
A sell is a hit if the stock lagged the S&P 500 over twelve months.
Hold is a written abstention from grading: it counts toward coverage of the S&P 500 and is never a hit or a miss.
Coverage is unique written names divided by the S&P 500 universe. A refusal (insufficient evidence) is not written, so it does not count. A bank, lender or insurer that receives a real call does count. Property trusts stay refused.
Returns are price only. Dividends are left out of both the stock and the S&P 500.
Operating companies (rules v4) are read from free cash flow. Banks and lenders (bank-v4) and insurance underwriters (insurer-v4) are read from common equity, priced against the newest book value on file, and from the return the price already requires. Those are separate standards: a bank call does not amend an operating company call. Property trusts, insurance brokers, incomplete filings and negative free cash flow on an operating company stay refused. The analysis page still does not show a Graham or discounted-cash-flow intrinsic for a bank or insurer.
A bank or insurer row can also carry reported readings: for a bank the efficiency ratio as filed, the common equity tier 1 ratio and the net interest margin the bank reports, and for a property and casualty insurer the combined ratio it reports, each only where the company's report has been checked. They are shown beside the call and are never part of the score, so a row can be read with or without them. A reading that could not be read is listed as not shown, with the reason, rather than left out.
Each frozen row keeps its rationale, the input snapshot, an honest price-as-of label, and the S&P 500 entry price, so relative performance can be audited. A weekend or holiday publish dates the price to the last NYSE session, never the calendar day of publication.
Rationale wording is versioned by amendment. A rules upgrade writes a new freeze that preserves the original rationale and shows the amended text with a dated stamp. If the original freeze cannot be recovered, the page says so rather than claiming the text was never rewritten. The amended rationale uses the same reason list as the live card for that rules version (prefer two real reasons; a third only when it adds a distinct company-specific input). A superseded prior freeze does not count again in the track record. The original freeze is labelled with its rules version (for example at freeze, v1), never left as an unlabeled generic block.
Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when the call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict.
Call weakening is a visible state on a row, not a change of verdict. When two or more of a call's own disconfirm conditions are already broken when it is issued, the row says how many are broken and which. It never moves the call. A single broken condition is still listed as already broken.
The return a call is built on differs by kind of company. For banks and insurers (return on equity) it is weighted toward the latest filed year: half the latest, three tenths the prior year and a fifth the oldest of the last three, and the row says when the call leans on the weighted figure because the latest year and the average sit far apart. For operating companies (return on invested capital) it is the latest fiscal year, and the average of the last three years and the direction are shown beside it as a reading and never scored.
Inputs are checked before a call is issued. When the income statement grades B or better while that return is under 4 percent, the latest year is recomputed from the company's own filed statements. If the filing agrees, the call proceeds and the row says it was checked. If it differs, the filed figure is used and the row says it was corrected. If it cannot be checked, no call is issued and the name is left as it was.
Each row states the period its filings run through. A call is not issued on data that has gone stale: when the report a company should have filed by now (its next quarterly or annual report, by its own filer status, plus a few days) is not in the inputs, the card reads data stale, says whether that report is still awaited or is already filed and not yet in our data, and no call is written. A call already on this page is never changed by that.

Rules versions

Frozen originals are never rewritten. A rules upgrade that leaves a call's verdict unchanged amends it: the original prose stays, labelled with the version it was written under, and the amended text is shown beside it. An upgrade that changes the verdict writes a new dated call and leaves the earlier one exactly as it was published, graded on its own. bank-v4 and insurer-v4 are the bank and insurer standards. They do not amend an operating company call.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

v1: Generic band-language rationale. No already-broken flags. Calendar-day price labels.
v2: Concrete Why citing filed figures; already-broken watch conditions; NYSE session-close price labels.
v3: Amended rationale matches the live two-reason preference; a third line only when it adds a distinct company input. Operating companies only.
bank-v3: Bank and lender standard, parallel to v3, not a successor. Durability is return on equity (averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file), book value per share, the share count at a small weight because book value per share already reflects dilution, and assets per dollar of equity. Equity is common equity, after preferred stock, and the price is read against the newest book value on file rather than the last fiscal year's. The price is the return on equity it requires, with growth in that identity held at 6%. A price under 0.8 times book while return on equity is below 10% is a writedown, not a bargain. Does not amend a v3 call.
insurer-v3: Insurance underwriter standard, parallel to v3 and to bank-v3. Book value per share outweighs return on equity, which is averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file. Equity is common equity and the price is read against the newest book value on file. Filed revenue per dollar of equity replaces assets per dollar of equity. Does not amend a v3 or bank-v3 call.
v4: Operating companies, successor to v3. The return on invested capital the card scores is still the latest fiscal year's, as under v3; the card now prints the three-year average and a direction beside it as a reading, and never scores them. (Weighting the earlier years into the score was built and measured on the S&P 500 and moved 23 verdicts with nothing to say which side was right, so it was not kept.) Also new: a scores legend; a check of the return against the filed figures when the income statement grades B or better beside a return under 4%; a call weakening state when two or more disconfirm conditions are already broken (the verdict is unchanged by it); the period the filings run through; and a stale-data rule tied to each company's filing deadlines. Why: a healthy income statement beside a tiny return can be a bad feed figure, and a call on filings a full report out of date should not read as confident. Amends the open v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
v5: Operating companies, successor to v4, decided by the owner after measuring each rule on the S&P 500 (docs/decision-v5-measurement.md). A High-conviction buy must also show a lasting return (return on invested capital: median of the last three measured years at least 10% and no year under 8%), net debt of at most five years of free cash flow, and, for a cyclical company whose margins are in the peak zone of its own filed years, a High-conviction buy on its median margins; a call that fails any of these reads Buy, watch and names the reason. A one-off cash margin spike (the last four quarters over 1.5 times the median fiscal year and more than 5 points above it) is read at the median margin on today's revenue. Revenue growth makes a price read as cheaper only if revenue grew in at least two of the three years, is not measured from a slump year (revenue and operating margin both collapsed; a divestiture is not a slump) and counts at most 25% a year. Brokers holding client cash and asset managers with an insurance balance sheet (IBKR, HOOD, APO, KKR) get no call. Why: on v4, 79 of about 500 companies read High-conviction buy, including peak-cycle earnings, one-off cash windfalls, heavily indebted companies and cash flows the card cannot read; v5 measured 45 before the owner softened three thresholds. Amends the open v4 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v4 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
v6: Operating companies, successor to v5. A jump in the cash margin that operating profit backs is read as growth, not as a one-off: when operating margin rose by at least half as much as the cash margin, free cash flow is no more than 1.1 times operating profit, and the company is not a cyclical business in the peak zone of its own filed years, the price is read against the cash flow as it stands instead of the median margin. Customer deposits, an inventory release and a cut in capital spending raise cash without profit and are still read at the median margin. Why: measured on the S&P 500, the v5 rule discounted companies whose margins had genuinely improved; of the 40 companies it flags, two verdicts change (Howmet and Hasbro, Hold to Buy, watch). Amends the open v5 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v5 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
bank-v4: Bank and lender standard, successor to bank-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average over the filed years, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4. The newest balance sheet is also read when the quarterly report does not state the preferred stock amount, by carrying the last known amount forward while the number of preferred shares is unchanged (exact, since preferred stock sits at a fixed amount per share), and a cover-page share count dated up to 45 days after the balance sheet is accepted and dated on the card (it was 7). Why: one year of a loss, or one boom year, should not decide the return the price is read against, and Bank of America was being priced on a March 31 balance sheet with June 30 filed. Amends the open bank-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen bank-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
insurer-v4: Insurance underwriter standard, successor to insurer-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4, and so are the preferred stock carry-forward and the 45 day cover-page share count (Cincinnati Financial files no share count in its balance sheet; its cover count is dated 22 days after June 30). Amends the open insurer-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen insurer-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.

Open calls

Every published call that has not yet reached its twelve-month date, newest first. A name appears more than once when its verdict changed and the earlier call is still open. Expand each row's evidence for the rationale and the inputs frozen that day.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

Showing 451 to 489 of 489 open calls. Journal read October 30, 2026 at 8:37 AM Eastern.

Symbol	Call	Published	Price at the call	Price as of	S&P 500 entry	Horizon
FITB	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	49.90	October 8, 2026	775.15	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +13.0% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +10.7% a year. The price is 1.43 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.7% a year, against +13.0% earned. That is a demandingness score of 42.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +12.8% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +10.7% a year. Return on equity: latest +12.7%, 3-year average +12.9%, weighted +12.8%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.40 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.6% a year, against +12.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 42.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 77 of 100 Demandingness 43 of 100 Return on equity: latest +12.7%, 3-year average +12.9%, weighted +12.8%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 57.0% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 64.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 62.0%, 2021 60.2%, 2022 56.4%, 2023 59.8%, 2024 59.4%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.8% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 10.6%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 49.90, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.15
HAS	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	91.39	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 90.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +24.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +73.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.1% a year for ten years, which is 7.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 25.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 90.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +24.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +73.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 10.2 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.6% a year for ten years, which is 7.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 26.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 26 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +73.7% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.8% Growth the price implies +0.6% a year Revenue growth on file -7.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 91.39, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
HON	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	204.34	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 70.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.2% a year for ten years, which is 3.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+1.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 37.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 70.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.8%, 3-year average +15.3%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.8% a year for ten years, which is 3.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+1.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 37 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 71 of 100 Demandingness 37 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.8%, 3-year average +15.3%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +8.3% Share count, yearly change -1.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.1% Growth the price implies +4.8% a year Revenue growth on file +1.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 204.34, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
GS	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	881.22	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +11.7% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.2% a year. The price is 2.38 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +16.6% a year, against +11.7% earned. That is a demandingness score of 67.7 of 100. Assets are 14.5 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +12.7% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.2% a year. Return on equity: latest +14.9%, 3-year average +11.7%, weighted +12.7%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 3.3 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 2.34 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +16.4% a year, against +12.7% earned. That is a demandingness score of 63.2 of 100. Assets are 14.5 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 63 of 100 Demandingness 63 of 100 Return on equity: latest +14.9%, 3-year average +11.7%, weighted +12.7%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 64.4% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 57.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 65.0%, 2021 53.8%, 2022 65.8%, 2023 74.6%, 2024 63.1%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 14.3% as of December 31, 2025; 12.9% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 15.0%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 881.22, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
USB	Buy, watch	October 7, 2026	56.08	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +11.9% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +9.3% a year. The price is 1.48 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.9% a year, against +11.9% earned. That is a demandingness score of 50 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, bank-v4) Return on equity is +12.3% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +9.3% a year. Return on equity: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +11.9%, weighted +12.3%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.44 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.8% a year, against +12.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 47.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 73 of 100 Demandingness 47 of 100 Return on equity: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +11.9%, weighted +12.3%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 59.0% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 57.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 57.6%, 2021 60.4%, 2022 61.6%, 2023 67.4%, 2024 62.9%.Filed February 23, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.8% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 10.6%.Filed February 23, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 56.08, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
VRT	Buy, watch	October 7, 2026	242.32	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 90.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +25.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.2% a year for ten years, which is 7.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+21.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, v4) Business durability scores 90.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +25.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +29.6%, 3-year average +22.6%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 7.0 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.1% a year for ten years, which is 7.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+21.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 42 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +29.6%, 3-year average +22.6%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +25.5% Growth the price implies +14.1% a year Revenue growth on file +21.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 242.32, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
UAL	Buy, watch	October 7, 2026	109.27	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 55.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.9% a year for ten years, which is 6.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 17.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, v4) Business durability scores 55.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.9%, 3-year average +10.2%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.8% a year for ten years, which is 6.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 16.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 55 of 100 Demandingness 17 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.9%, 3-year average +10.2%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -0.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +4.0% Growth the price implies +2.8% a year Revenue growth on file +9.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 109.27, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.9%).
UHS	High-conviction buy	October 7, 2026	175.50	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 75.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +68.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.8% a year for ten years, which is 7.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 14.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, v4) Business durability scores 75.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +68.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +10.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.5% a year for ten years, which is 7.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 13.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 75 of 100 Demandingness 14 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +10.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +68.3% Share count, yearly change -4.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +4.5% Growth the price implies +1.5% a year Revenue growth on file +9.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 175.50, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
WDC	Buy, watch	October 7, 2026	407.46	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 82.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.8% a year for ten years, which is 8.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+27.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, v4) Business durability scores 82.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +44.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 24.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +17.8% a year for ten years, which is 9.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+27.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 48.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 83 of 100 Demandingness 49 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +44.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +3.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +27.2% Growth the price implies +17.8% a year Revenue growth on file +27.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 407.46, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
WFC	Buy, watch	October 7, 2026	79.85	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +11.6% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.2% a year. The price is 1.50 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.0% a year, against +11.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 51.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, bank-v4) Return on equity is +11.9% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.2% a year. Return on equity: latest +12.5%, 3-year average +11.6%, weighted +11.9%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.47 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.9% a year, against +11.9% earned. That is a demandingness score of 50 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 70 of 100 Demandingness 50 of 100 Return on equity: latest +12.5%, 3-year average +11.6%, weighted +11.9%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 65.5% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 60.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 77.6%, 2021 67.9%, 2022 76.9%, 2023 67.3%, 2024 66.3%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.6% as of December 31, 2025; 10.3% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.1%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 79.85, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
TRV	High-conviction buy	October 7, 2026	361.01	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +17.4% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +17.6% a year. The price is 2.27 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.1% a year, against +17.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 36.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +18.5% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +17.6% a year. Return on equity: latest +20.6%, 3-year average +17.4%, weighted +18.5%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.27 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.1% a year, against +18.5% earned. That is a demandingness score of 30.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 31 of 100 Return on equity: latest +20.6%, 3-year average +17.4%, weighted +18.5%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: 89.9% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 83.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2023 97.0%, 2024 92.5%.Filed February 12, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 361.01, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
SYF	High-conviction buy	October 7, 2026	71.72	October 7, 2026	775.82	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +21.3% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +17.3% a year. The price is 1.54 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.2% a year, against +21.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, bank-v4) Return on equity is +21.9% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +17.3% a year. Return on equity: latest +22.4%, 3-year average +21.3%, weighted +21.9%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.54 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.1% a year, against +21.9% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on equity: latest +22.4%, 3-year average +21.3%, weighted +21.9%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Common equity tier 1 ratio: 12.6% as of December 31, 2025; 13.2% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 13.3%.Filed February 6, 2026 (form 10-K). Efficiency ratio, as filed: not shown. Synchrony reports retailer share arrangements as a deduction from revenue, and that line is not among the standard tags, so a ratio from them would not match the company's own. Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 71.72, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.82
TKO	High-conviction buy	October 7, 2026	174.71	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 79.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +33.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -4.9% a year for ten years, which is 65.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+60.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, v4) Business durability scores 79.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +33.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +10.8%, 3-year average +5.8%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 5.0 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -5.5% a year for ten years, which is 66.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+60.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 80 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +10.8%, 3-year average +5.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +33.7% Share count, yearly change -2.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +31.5% Growth the price implies -5.5% a year Revenue growth on file +60.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 174.71, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
TFC	Hold, no edge	October 7, 2026	45.29	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +4.6% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.6% a year. The price is 0.97 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +9.9% a year, against +4.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 68.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, bank-v4) Return on equity is +6.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.6% a year. Return on equity: latest +8.4%, 3-year average +4.6%, weighted +6.1%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 3.8 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 0.94 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +9.7% a year, against +6.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 63.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 55 of 100 Demandingness 63 of 100 Return on equity: latest +8.4%, 3-year average +4.6%, weighted +6.1%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 59.4% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 58.0% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 65.6%, 2021 67.8%, 2022 60.9%, 2023 93.3%, 2024 90.4%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.8% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.5%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 45.29, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +6.1%).
WRB	High-conviction buy	October 7, 2026	70.17	October 7, 2026	775.80	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-07 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +20.4% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +14.8% a year. The price is 2.63 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +16.5% a year, against +20.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 29 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-07, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +20.4% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +14.8% a year. Return on equity: latest +19.7%, 3-year average +20.4%, weighted +20.4%, direction: deteriorating. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.65 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +16.6% a year, against +20.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 29.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 29 of 100 Return on equity: latest +19.7%, 3-year average +20.4%, weighted +20.4%, direction: deteriorating Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its combined ratio disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 70.17, Session close of 2026-10-07 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.80
LLY	Buy, watch	October 6, 2026	1159.88	October 6, 2026	781.31	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-06 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 88.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +10.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +26.4% a year for ten years, which is 5.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+31.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 63.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-06, v4) Business durability scores 88.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +10.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +44.8%, 3-year average +36.6%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +26.1% a year for ten years, which is 5.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+31.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 63.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 63 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +44.8%, 3-year average +36.6%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +10.3% Share count, yearly change -2.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.0% Growth the price implies +26.1% a year Revenue growth on file +31.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 1159.88, Session close of 2026-10-06 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 781.31
SNDK	High-conviction buy	October 6, 2026	1675.40	October 6, 2026	781.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-06 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 92 of 100 because return on invested capital is +104.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is unchanged; trailing free cash flow margin is +56.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.6% a year for ten years, which is 40.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+49.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 31.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-06, v4) Business durability scores 92 of 100 because return on invested capital is +104.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is unchanged; trailing free cash flow margin is +56.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +104.7%, 2-year average +54.2%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 50.5 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.6% a year for ten years, which is 40.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+49.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 31.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 31 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +104.7%, 2-year average +54.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change 0.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +56.8% Growth the price implies +8.6% a year Revenue growth on file +49.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 1675.40, Session close of 2026-10-06 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 781.34
VRSK	High-conviction buy	October 5, 2026	161.91	October 5, 2026	772.97	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 98.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +34.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +20.4% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +39.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.5% a year for ten years, which is 1.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 38.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 98 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital +34.2% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +20.4% Share count, yearly change -3.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +39.4% Growth the price implies +5.5% a year Revenue growth on file +7.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 161.91, Session close of 2026-10-05 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 772.97
BNY	Hold, no edge	October 5, 2026	143.47	October 5, 2026	772.84	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Return on equity is +11.4% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.9% a year. The price is 2.44 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.8% a year, against +11.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 65.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 73 of 100 Demandingness 66 of 100 Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 65.0% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 60.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 69.6%, 2021 72.3%, 2022 78.7%, 2023 75.1%, 2024 68.2%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 11.9% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.2%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 143.47, Session close of 2026-10-05 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 772.84
EG	High-conviction buy	October 5, 2026	369.44	October 5, 2026	772.69	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Return on equity is +14.6% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +20.7% a year. The price is 0.96 times book (common equity per share at March 31, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +9.8% a year, against +14.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 26.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 88 of 100 Demandingness 26 of 100 Prices frozen Share price: 369.44, Session close of 2026-10-05 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 772.69
ISRG	Buy, watch	October 5, 2026	401.58	October 5, 2026	772.62	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 84.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +55.6% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +29.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.5% a year for ten years, which is 1.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+17.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 64.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 84 of 100 Demandingness 65 of 100 Return on invested capital +17.7% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +55.6% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +29.2% Growth the price implies +18.5% a year Revenue growth on file +17.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 401.58, Session close of 2026-10-05 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 772.62
ETN	Hold, no edge	October 5, 2026	438.38	October 5, 2026	772.69	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 70.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.8% a year for ten years, which is 9.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 65.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 71 of 100 Demandingness 65 of 100 Return on invested capital +15.1% Share count, yearly change -0.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +13.2% Growth the price implies +18.8% a year Revenue growth on file +9.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 438.38, Session close of 2026-10-05 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 772.69
WFC	Hold, no edge	October 5, 2026	81.69	October 5, 2026	773.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Return on equity is +11.6% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.2% a year. The price is 1.50 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.0% a year, against +11.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 51.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 70 of 100 Demandingness 51 of 100 Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 65.5% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 60.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 77.6%, 2021 67.9%, 2022 76.9%, 2023 67.3%, 2024 66.3%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.6% as of December 31, 2025; 10.3% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.1%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 81.69, Session close of 2026-10-05 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 773.09
FOXA	High-conviction buy	October 1, 2026	61.19	October 1, 2026	760.68	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 76.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +18.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +5.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.9% a year for ten years, which is 1.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital +18.2% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +5.1% Share count, yearly change -5.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.6% Growth the price implies +5.9% a year Revenue growth on file +4.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 61.19, Session close of 2026-10-01 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 760.68
CL	High-conviction buy	October 1, 2026	84.64	October 1, 2026	759.66	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 92.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +41.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +27.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +18.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.9% a year for ten years, which is 1.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital +41.9% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +27.6% Share count, yearly change -1.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +18.3% Growth the price implies +5.9% a year Revenue growth on file +4.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 84.64, Session close of 2026-10-01 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 759.66
BSX	High-conviction buy	September 28, 2026	43.73	September 28, 2026	764.33	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 70.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +62.9% a year; the share count is growing at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +16.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.5% a year for ten years, which is 9.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+16.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 28.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 70 of 100 Demandingness 29 of 100 Return on invested capital +10.3% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +62.9% Share count, yearly change +1.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +16.0% Growth the price implies +7.5% a year Revenue growth on file +16.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 43.73, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.33
COIN	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	192.35	September 28, 2026	764.33	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 62.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +14.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.0% a year for ten years, which is 18.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+31.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 40.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 63 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital +14.2% Share count, yearly change +5.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +27.3% Growth the price implies +13.0% a year Revenue growth on file +31.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 192.35, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.33 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +5.1%).
LNT	Buy, watch	September 28, 2026	63.20	September 28, 2026	764.12	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 49.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +4.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +29.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.5% a year for ten years, in line with the revenue growth already on file (+1.2% a year). That is a demandingness score of 28.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 50 of 100 Demandingness 29 of 100 Return on invested capital +4.5% Share count, yearly change +0.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +29.1% Growth the price implies +1.5% a year Revenue growth on file +1.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 63.20, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.12 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +4.5%).
MDLZ	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	60.10	September 28, 2026	764.87	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 52.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +6.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +4.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.2% a year for ten years, which is 6.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+7.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 53 of 100 Demandingness 56 of 100 Return on invested capital +6.0% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +4.9% Share count, yearly change -2.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +6.6% Growth the price implies +13.2% a year Revenue growth on file +7.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 60.10, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.87 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +6.0%).
CTVA	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	78.51	September 28, 2026	764.33	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 57.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 2.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.1% a year for ten years, which is 11.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 67 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 58 of 100 Demandingness 67 of 100 Return on invested capital +8.2% Share count, yearly change -2.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.4% Growth the price implies +11.1% a year Revenue growth on file -0.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 78.51, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.33 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.2%).
EW	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	86.58	September 28, 2026	764.43	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 82.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +19.0% a year for ten years, which is 8.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+10.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 65.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 82 of 100 Demandingness 66 of 100 Return on invested capital +17.2% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +14.3% Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.3% Growth the price implies +19.0% a year Revenue growth on file +10.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 86.58, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.43
CHRW	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	147.06	September 28, 2026	764.33	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 52.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +20.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -19.4% a year; the share count is growing at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.7% a year for ten years, which is 21.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-13.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 61.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 53 of 100 Demandingness 62 of 100 Return on invested capital +20.2% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -19.4% Share count, yearly change +0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.0% Growth the price implies +8.7% a year Revenue growth on file -13.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 147.06, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.33 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -19.4%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +8.7%, revenue -13.1%, ceiling +1.9%).
BEN	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	32.42	September 28, 2026	765.04	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 27.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +3.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -26.1% a year; the share count is growing at 1.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +10.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.3% a year for ten years, which is 4.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 40.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 28 of 100 Demandingness 41 of 100 Return on invested capital +3.6% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -26.1% Share count, yearly change +1.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +10.3% Growth the price implies +6.3% a year Revenue growth on file +2.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 32.42, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 765.04 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +3.6%). Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -26.1%).
DVA	High-conviction buy	September 28, 2026	181.65	September 28, 2026	764.43	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 80 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +21.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 8.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +10.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -4.9% a year for ten years, which is 10.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+5.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 80 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital +13.7% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +21.3% Share count, yearly change -8.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +10.8% Growth the price implies -4.9% a year Revenue growth on file +5.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 181.65, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.43
PTC	High-conviction buy	September 28, 2026	139.21	September 28, 2026	764.66	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 82.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +16.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +39.0% a year; the share count is growing at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +31.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.1% a year for ten years, which is 7.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 22.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 82 of 100 Demandingness 23 of 100 Return on invested capital +16.1% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +39.0% Share count, yearly change +0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +31.7% Growth the price implies +5.1% a year Revenue growth on file +12.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 139.21, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.66
EOG	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	141.18	September 28, 2026	764.43	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 60.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +18.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -16.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +16.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.0% a year for ten years, which is 15.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-8.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 57.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 61 of 100 Demandingness 58 of 100 Return on invested capital +18.3% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -16.0% Share count, yearly change -2.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +16.9% Growth the price implies +7.0% a year Revenue growth on file -8.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 141.18, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.43 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -16.0%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +7.0%, revenue -8.5%, ceiling +6.5%).
ABT	Hold, no edge	September 28, 2026	100.84	September 28, 2026	764.12	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 58.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -1.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +16.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.1% a year for ten years, which is 9.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 59 of 100 Demandingness 50 of 100 Return on invested capital +11.0% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -1.8% Share count, yearly change 0.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +16.3% Growth the price implies +10.1% a year Revenue growth on file +0.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 100.84, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 764.12 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -1.8%).
IT	High-conviction buy	September 28, 2026	186.40	September 28, 2026	765.04	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 90.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +41.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +8.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +19.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -1.8% a year for ten years, which is 7.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+5.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 90 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital +41.5% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +8.1% Share count, yearly change -3.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +19.4% Growth the price implies -1.8% a year Revenue growth on file +5.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 186.40, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 765.04
TRMB	Buy, watch	September 28, 2026	56.99	September 28, 2026	765.69	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 50 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -0.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +20.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.6% a year for ten years, which is 6.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Durability 50 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital +7.6% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -0.5% Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +20.4% Growth the price implies +5.6% a year Revenue growth on file -0.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 56.99, Session close of 2026-09-28 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 765.69 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.6%). Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -0.5%).

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Source: company filings via Yahoo Finance fundamentals, live prices via Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 via the SPY fund. Rules version v6. Returns are price only.