Decision Record

Each Decision Card is one dated call on one S&P 500 company: high-conviction buy, buy and watch, hold with no edge, sell, or insufficient evidence. The call is frozen on the day it is published, with the share price, the S&P 500 that day, the rationale, and the measured inputs. Twelve months later it is graded against those stored prices, never against a later rewrite of the rules. A Saturday publication still uses the prior session's close, and that is labelled on each row. When rationale wording is later upgraded, the change is logged as an amendment: the original freeze is preserved and the amended text is shown separately with a date stamp.

Page rendered October 30, 2026 at 7:29 AM Eastern. This stamp is when this HTML was built, not the prior session close labelled on each row.

Published calls

489

Names

413

Share of the S&P 500

82.9%

Written holds

200

Graded over twelve months

Hit rate

Not shown yet (0 of 30 graded)

A hit rate is shown only after 30 directional calls (high-conviction buy, buy and watch, or sell) have been graded over a full twelve-month horizon. So far 0 have been graded. Until then the dated list is the record, not a summary.

How a call is graded

Verdicts are made from business durability, what the price already expects, and measurable disconfirming conditions. Grading comes later.

Grading is relative to the S&P 500: the frozen share price on the row versus the frozen S&P 500 (SPY) entry already on that row, never today's prices or an absolute return alone.
A high-conviction buy or a buy-and-watch is a hit if the stock beat the S&P 500 over twelve months.
A sell is a hit if the stock lagged the S&P 500 over twelve months.
Hold is a written abstention from grading: it counts toward coverage of the S&P 500 and is never a hit or a miss.
Coverage is unique written names divided by the S&P 500 universe. A refusal (insufficient evidence) is not written, so it does not count. A bank, lender or insurer that receives a real call does count. Property trusts stay refused.
Returns are price only. Dividends are left out of both the stock and the S&P 500.
Operating companies (rules v4) are read from free cash flow. Banks and lenders (bank-v4) and insurance underwriters (insurer-v4) are read from common equity, priced against the newest book value on file, and from the return the price already requires. Those are separate standards: a bank call does not amend an operating company call. Property trusts, insurance brokers, incomplete filings and negative free cash flow on an operating company stay refused. The analysis page still does not show a Graham or discounted-cash-flow intrinsic for a bank or insurer.
A bank or insurer row can also carry reported readings: for a bank the efficiency ratio as filed, the common equity tier 1 ratio and the net interest margin the bank reports, and for a property and casualty insurer the combined ratio it reports, each only where the company's report has been checked. They are shown beside the call and are never part of the score, so a row can be read with or without them. A reading that could not be read is listed as not shown, with the reason, rather than left out.
Each frozen row keeps its rationale, the input snapshot, an honest price-as-of label, and the S&P 500 entry price, so relative performance can be audited. A weekend or holiday publish dates the price to the last NYSE session, never the calendar day of publication.
Rationale wording is versioned by amendment. A rules upgrade writes a new freeze that preserves the original rationale and shows the amended text with a dated stamp. If the original freeze cannot be recovered, the page says so rather than claiming the text was never rewritten. The amended rationale uses the same reason list as the live card for that rules version (prefer two real reasons; a third only when it adds a distinct company-specific input). A superseded prior freeze does not count again in the track record. The original freeze is labelled with its rules version (for example at freeze, v1), never left as an unlabeled generic block.
Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when the call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict.
Call weakening is a visible state on a row, not a change of verdict. When two or more of a call's own disconfirm conditions are already broken when it is issued, the row says how many are broken and which. It never moves the call. A single broken condition is still listed as already broken.
The return a call is built on differs by kind of company. For banks and insurers (return on equity) it is weighted toward the latest filed year: half the latest, three tenths the prior year and a fifth the oldest of the last three, and the row says when the call leans on the weighted figure because the latest year and the average sit far apart. For operating companies (return on invested capital) it is the latest fiscal year, and the average of the last three years and the direction are shown beside it as a reading and never scored.
Inputs are checked before a call is issued. When the income statement grades B or better while that return is under 4 percent, the latest year is recomputed from the company's own filed statements. If the filing agrees, the call proceeds and the row says it was checked. If it differs, the filed figure is used and the row says it was corrected. If it cannot be checked, no call is issued and the name is left as it was.
Each row states the period its filings run through. A call is not issued on data that has gone stale: when the report a company should have filed by now (its next quarterly or annual report, by its own filer status, plus a few days) is not in the inputs, the card reads data stale, says whether that report is still awaited or is already filed and not yet in our data, and no call is written. A call already on this page is never changed by that.

Rules versions

Frozen originals are never rewritten. A rules upgrade that leaves a call's verdict unchanged amends it: the original prose stays, labelled with the version it was written under, and the amended text is shown beside it. An upgrade that changes the verdict writes a new dated call and leaves the earlier one exactly as it was published, graded on its own. bank-v4 and insurer-v4 are the bank and insurer standards. They do not amend an operating company call.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

v1: Generic band-language rationale. No already-broken flags. Calendar-day price labels.
v2: Concrete Why citing filed figures; already-broken watch conditions; NYSE session-close price labels.
v3: Amended rationale matches the live two-reason preference; a third line only when it adds a distinct company input. Operating companies only.
bank-v3: Bank and lender standard, parallel to v3, not a successor. Durability is return on equity (averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file), book value per share, the share count at a small weight because book value per share already reflects dilution, and assets per dollar of equity. Equity is common equity, after preferred stock, and the price is read against the newest book value on file rather than the last fiscal year's. The price is the return on equity it requires, with growth in that identity held at 6%. A price under 0.8 times book while return on equity is below 10% is a writedown, not a bargain. Does not amend a v3 call.
insurer-v3: Insurance underwriter standard, parallel to v3 and to bank-v3. Book value per share outweighs return on equity, which is averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file. Equity is common equity and the price is read against the newest book value on file. Filed revenue per dollar of equity replaces assets per dollar of equity. Does not amend a v3 or bank-v3 call.
v4: Operating companies, successor to v3. The return on invested capital the card scores is still the latest fiscal year's, as under v3; the card now prints the three-year average and a direction beside it as a reading, and never scores them. (Weighting the earlier years into the score was built and measured on the S&P 500 and moved 23 verdicts with nothing to say which side was right, so it was not kept.) Also new: a scores legend; a check of the return against the filed figures when the income statement grades B or better beside a return under 4%; a call weakening state when two or more disconfirm conditions are already broken (the verdict is unchanged by it); the period the filings run through; and a stale-data rule tied to each company's filing deadlines. Why: a healthy income statement beside a tiny return can be a bad feed figure, and a call on filings a full report out of date should not read as confident. Amends the open v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
v5: Operating companies, successor to v4, decided by the owner after measuring each rule on the S&P 500 (docs/decision-v5-measurement.md). A High-conviction buy must also show a lasting return (return on invested capital: median of the last three measured years at least 10% and no year under 8%), net debt of at most five years of free cash flow, and, for a cyclical company whose margins are in the peak zone of its own filed years, a High-conviction buy on its median margins; a call that fails any of these reads Buy, watch and names the reason. A one-off cash margin spike (the last four quarters over 1.5 times the median fiscal year and more than 5 points above it) is read at the median margin on today's revenue. Revenue growth makes a price read as cheaper only if revenue grew in at least two of the three years, is not measured from a slump year (revenue and operating margin both collapsed; a divestiture is not a slump) and counts at most 25% a year. Brokers holding client cash and asset managers with an insurance balance sheet (IBKR, HOOD, APO, KKR) get no call. Why: on v4, 79 of about 500 companies read High-conviction buy, including peak-cycle earnings, one-off cash windfalls, heavily indebted companies and cash flows the card cannot read; v5 measured 45 before the owner softened three thresholds. Amends the open v4 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v4 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
v6: Operating companies, successor to v5. A jump in the cash margin that operating profit backs is read as growth, not as a one-off: when operating margin rose by at least half as much as the cash margin, free cash flow is no more than 1.1 times operating profit, and the company is not a cyclical business in the peak zone of its own filed years, the price is read against the cash flow as it stands instead of the median margin. Customer deposits, an inventory release and a cut in capital spending raise cash without profit and are still read at the median margin. Why: measured on the S&P 500, the v5 rule discounted companies whose margins had genuinely improved; of the 40 companies it flags, two verdicts change (Howmet and Hasbro, Hold to Buy, watch). Amends the open v5 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v5 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
bank-v4: Bank and lender standard, successor to bank-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average over the filed years, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4. The newest balance sheet is also read when the quarterly report does not state the preferred stock amount, by carrying the last known amount forward while the number of preferred shares is unchanged (exact, since preferred stock sits at a fixed amount per share), and a cover-page share count dated up to 45 days after the balance sheet is accepted and dated on the card (it was 7). Why: one year of a loss, or one boom year, should not decide the return the price is read against, and Bank of America was being priced on a March 31 balance sheet with June 30 filed. Amends the open bank-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen bank-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
insurer-v4: Insurance underwriter standard, successor to insurer-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4, and so are the preferred stock carry-forward and the 45 day cover-page share count (Cincinnati Financial files no share count in its balance sheet; its cover count is dated 22 days after June 30). Amends the open insurer-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen insurer-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.

Open calls

Every published call that has not yet reached its twelve-month date, newest first. A name appears more than once when its verdict changed and the earlier call is still open. Expand each row's evidence for the rationale and the inputs frozen that day.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

Showing 401 to 450 of 489 open calls. Journal read October 30, 2026 at 7:28 AM Eastern.

Symbol	Call	Published	Price at the call	Price as of	S&P 500 entry	Horizon
AIG	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	76.14	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +4.2% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +11.5% a year. The price is 0.97 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +9.9% a year, against +4.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 70.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +4.4% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +11.5% a year. Return on equity: latest +7.4%, 3-year average +4.2%, weighted +4.4%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 3.2 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 0.98 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +9.9% a year, against +4.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 69.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 68 of 100 Demandingness 70 of 100 Return on equity: latest +7.4%, 3-year average +4.2%, weighted +4.4%, direction: improving Prices frozen Share price: 76.14, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +4.4%).
BNY	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	141.68	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +11.4% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.9% a year. The price is 2.44 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.8% a year, against +11.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 65.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +12.2% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.9% a year. Return on equity: latest +13.9%, 3-year average +11.4%, weighted +12.2%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.41 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.6% a year, against +12.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 62.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 74 of 100 Demandingness 62 of 100 Return on equity: latest +13.9%, 3-year average +11.4%, weighted +12.2%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 65.0% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 60.4% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 69.6%, 2021 72.3%, 2022 78.7%, 2023 75.1%, 2024 68.2%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 11.9% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.2%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 141.68, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
NEM	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	113.89	October 8, 2026	774.48	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 80 of 100 because return on invested capital is +26.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +72.8% a year; the share count is growing at 11.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +37.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.4% a year for ten years, which is 22.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+23.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 13.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 80 of 100 because return on invested capital is +26.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +72.8% a year; the share count is growing at 11.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +37.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +26.0%, 3-year average +13.2%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 12.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.1% a year for ten years, which is 22.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+23.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 12.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 80 of 100 Demandingness 13 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +26.0%, 3-year average +13.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +72.8% Share count, yearly change +11.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +37.8% Growth the price implies +1.1% a year Revenue growth on file +23.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 113.89, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.48 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +11.1%).
ACGL	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	94.48	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +24.2% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +25.9% a year. The price is 1.39 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.6% a year, against +24.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +22.8% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +25.9% a year. Return on equity: latest +20.1%, 3-year average +24.2%, weighted +22.8%, direction: deteriorating. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.39 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.6% a year, against +22.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 96 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on equity: latest +20.1%, 3-year average +24.2%, weighted +22.8%, direction: deteriorating Prices frozen Share price: 94.48, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34
RJF	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	156.60	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +18.1% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +13.0% a year. The price is 2.40 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.6% a year, against +18.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 34.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +18.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +13.0% a year. Return on equity: latest +17.7%, 3-year average +18.1%, weighted +18.1%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.37 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.5% a year, against +18.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 34.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 81 of 100 Demandingness 34 of 100 Return on equity: latest +17.7%, 3-year average +18.1%, weighted +18.1%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 80.7% for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025; 80.9% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2018 82.0%, 2019 82.2%, 2020 86.8%, 2023 80.4%, 2024 79.4%.Filed November 25, 2025 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 22.9% as of September 30, 2025; 21.5% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 22.6%.Filed November 25, 2025 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 156.60, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
C	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	125.75	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +5.7% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.4% a year. The price is 1.12 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.6% a year, against +5.7% earned. That is a demandingness score of 67.5 of 100. Assets are 12.5 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +6.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.4% a year. Return on equity: latest +6.8%, 3-year average +5.7%, weighted +6.1%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.10 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.4% a year, against +6.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 65.8 of 100. Assets are 12.5 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 53 of 100 Demandingness 66 of 100 Return on equity: latest +6.8%, 3-year average +5.7%, weighted +6.1%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 64.7% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.Earlier years: 2020 58.8%, 2021 67.0%, 2022 68.1%, 2023 71.7%, 2024 66.4%.Filed February 20, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 13.2% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 13.6%.Filed February 20, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 125.75, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +6.1%).
MTB	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	213.53	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +10.2% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.0% a year. The price is 1.25 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.0% a year, against +10.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 52.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +10.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.0% a year. Return on equity: latest +10.2%, 3-year average +10.2%, weighted +10.1%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.21 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.9% a year, against +10.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 52.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 65 of 100 Demandingness 53 of 100 Return on equity: latest +10.2%, 3-year average +10.2%, weighted +10.1%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 56.7% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 53.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 56.9%, 2021 60.3%, 2022 61.7%, 2023 55.8%, 2024 57.8%.Filed February 18, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.8% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.7%.Filed February 18, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 213.53, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38
COF	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 8, 2026	194.85	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +5.6%). \| Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +17.9%). The verdict is unchanged. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +6.6% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +11.4% a year. The price is 1.11 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.4% a year, against +6.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 63.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +5.6% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +11.4% a year. Return on equity: latest +2.7%, 3-year average +6.6%, weighted +5.6%, direction: deteriorating. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 4.0 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 1.10 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.4% a year, against +5.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 67.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 50 of 100 Demandingness 67 of 100 Return on equity: latest +2.7%, 3-year average +6.6%, weighted +5.6%, direction: deteriorating Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 57.1% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 57.0% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 52.8%, 2021 54.4%, 2022 56.0%, 2023 55.2%, 2024 54.9%.Filed February 19, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 14.3% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 13.5%.Filed February 19, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: 7.84% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 8.01% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2023 6.63%, 2024 6.88%.Filed February 19, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 194.85, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +5.6%). Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +17.9%).
CINF	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	162.47	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +16.6% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +15.0% a year. The price is 1.60 times book (common equity per share at March 31, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.4% a year, against +16.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 27.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +16.6% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +15.0% a year. Return on equity: latest +16.0%, 3-year average +16.6%, weighted +16.6%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.50 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026, shares as of the report cover, July 22, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.0% a year, against +16.6% earned. That is a demandingness score of 26.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 90 of 100 Demandingness 27 of 100 Return on equity: latest +16.0%, 3-year average +16.6%, weighted +16.6%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its combined ratio disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 162.47, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
INCY	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	111.43	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 98.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +53.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +19.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +32.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.0% a year for ten years, which is 12.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+14.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 98.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +53.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +19.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +32.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +53.0%, 3-year average +28.1%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 25.0 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.5% a year for ten years, which is 14.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+14.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 11.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 99 of 100 Demandingness 11 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +53.0%, 3-year average +28.1%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +19.9% Share count, yearly change -3.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +32.5% Growth the price implies +0.5% a year Revenue growth on file +14.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 111.43, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
PPG	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	104.21	October 8, 2026	774.48	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 74.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +38.4% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.2% a year for ten years, which is 4.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 38.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 74.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +38.4% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.2%, 3-year average +13.2%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.1% a year for ten years, which is 4.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 37.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 74 of 100 Demandingness 38 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.2%, 3-year average +13.2%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +38.4% Share count, yearly change -1.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.6% Growth the price implies +5.1% a year Revenue growth on file +0.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 104.21, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.48
PNC	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	215.01	October 8, 2026	774.48	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +10.8% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +10.8% a year. The price is 1.38 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.5% a year, against +10.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 52.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +11.0% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +10.8% a year. Return on equity: latest +11.4%, 3-year average +10.8%, weighted +11.0%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.34 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.4% a year, against +11.0% earned. That is a demandingness score of 51.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 74 of 100 Demandingness 52 of 100 Return on equity: latest +11.4%, 3-year average +10.8%, weighted +11.0%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 59.9% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 59.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 60.9%, 2021 67.7%, 2022 62.4%, 2023 65.2%, 2024 62.7%.Filed February 20, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.6% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 10.5%.Filed February 20, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 215.01, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.48
EFX	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	142.66	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 69.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +148.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.2% a year for ten years, which is 1.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+5.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 35.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 69.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +148.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.5%, 3-year average +7.9%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.9% a year for ten years, which is 1.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+5.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 34.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 70 of 100 Demandingness 35 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.5%, 3-year average +7.9%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +148.5% Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.1% Growth the price implies +3.9% a year Revenue growth on file +5.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 142.66, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.5%).
MET	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	96.21	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +10.2% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +4.2% a year. The price is 2.23 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +17.2% a year, against +10.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 74.7 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.71 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +11.0% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +4.2% a year. Return on equity: latest +11.4%, 3-year average +10.2%, weighted +11.0%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.24 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +17.2% a year, against +11.0% earned. That is a demandingness score of 72.1 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.71 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 61 of 100 Demandingness 72 of 100 Return on equity: latest +11.4%, 3-year average +10.2%, weighted +11.0%, direction: improving Prices frozen Share price: 96.21, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38
HCA	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	440.40	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 89.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +23.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +33.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 6.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.5% a year for ten years, which is 3.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 36.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 89.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +23.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +33.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 6.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +23.0%, 3-year average +21.2%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.7% a year for ten years, which is 3.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 36.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 90 of 100 Demandingness 37 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +23.0%, 3-year average +21.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +33.5% Share count, yearly change -6.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +7.7% Growth the price implies +4.7% a year Revenue growth on file +7.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 440.40, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
MS	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	186.74	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +13.3% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.7% a year. The price is 2.79 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +17.8% a year, against +13.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 66.3 of 100. Assets are 12.7 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +14.3% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +5.7% a year. Return on equity: latest +16.5%, 3-year average +13.3%, weighted +14.3%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.75 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +17.6% a year, against +14.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 61.9 of 100. Assets are 12.7 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 68 of 100 Demandingness 62 of 100 Return on equity: latest +16.5%, 3-year average +13.3%, weighted +14.3%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 68.4% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 65.1% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 68.9%, 2021 67.1%, 2022 73.2%, 2023 77.2%, 2024 71.1%.Filed February 19, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 15.0% as of December 31, 2025; 14.9% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 15.9%.Filed February 19, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 186.74, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38
FIX	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	1727.53	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 92.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +60.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +61.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +19.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.8% a year for ten years, which is 18.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+30.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 38.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 92.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +60.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +61.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +19.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +60.8%, 3-year average +42.9%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 17.9 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +12.4% a year for ten years, which is 17.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+30.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +60.8%, 3-year average +42.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +61.7% Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +19.2% Growth the price implies +12.4% a year Revenue growth on file +30.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 1727.53, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
ALB	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	101.92	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 42.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +0.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +1.8% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -2.7% a year for ten years, which is 8.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-11.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 42.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +0.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +1.8% a year; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +0.5%, 3-year average -0.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -3.4% a year for ten years, which is 7.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-11.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 43 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +0.5%, 3-year average -0.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +1.8% Share count, yearly change +0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +22.7% Growth the price implies -3.4% a year Revenue growth on file -11.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 101.92, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +0.5%).
FDX	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	287.58	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 65 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +27.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.2% a year for ten years, which is 0.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+1.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 65 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +27.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.4%, 3-year average +8.0%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.3% a year for ten years, which is 0.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+1.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (May 31) Durability 65 of 100 Demandingness 31 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.4%, 3-year average +8.0%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +27.5% Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.4% Growth the price implies +2.3% a year Revenue growth on file +1.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 287.58, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.4%).
KKR	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	88.38	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 29.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +0.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 1.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +15.6% a year for ten years, which is 35.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+51.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 44.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 29.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +0.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 1.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +0.7%, 3-year average +1.8%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.9% a year for ten years, which is 36.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+51.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 43.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 30 of 100 Demandingness 44 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +0.7%, 3-year average +1.8%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +1.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.1% Growth the price implies +14.9% a year Revenue growth on file +51.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 88.38, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +0.7%).
GL	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	164.09	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +21.8% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +22.8% a year. The price is 2.07 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +14.3% a year, against +21.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 16.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +21.5% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +22.8% a year. Return on equity: latest +20.6%, 3-year average +21.8%, weighted +21.5%, direction: deteriorating. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.05 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +14.2% a year, against +21.5% earned. That is a demandingness score of 17.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 97 of 100 Demandingness 18 of 100 Return on equity: latest +20.6%, 3-year average +21.8%, weighted +21.5%, direction: deteriorating Prices frozen Share price: 164.09, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
AIZ	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	268.85	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +15.0% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +13.8% a year. The price is 2.16 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +14.7% a year, against +15.0% earned. That is a demandingness score of 47.9 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.33 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +15.2% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +13.8% a year. Return on equity: latest +15.8%, 3-year average +15.0%, weighted +15.2%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.18 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +14.7% a year, against +15.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 46.8 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.33 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 82 of 100 Demandingness 47 of 100 Return on equity: latest +15.8%, 3-year average +15.0%, weighted +15.2%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its combined ratio disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 268.85, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34
CAH	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	231.86	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 85.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +164.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +25.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +1.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -0.1% a year for ten years, which is 7.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 85.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +164.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +25.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +1.8%. Return on invested capital: one filed year is on record (+164.8%), so there is no average or direction, and the latest year is used. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.6% a year for ten years, which is 6.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+7.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 11.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 86 of 100 Demandingness 12 of 100 Return on invested capital: one filed year on record, +164.8% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +25.5% Share count, yearly change -2.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +1.8% Growth the price implies +0.6% a year Revenue growth on file +7.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 231.86, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
HIG	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	127.43	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +19.8% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +16.7% a year. The price is 1.78 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +13.1% a year, against +19.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 19.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +20.4% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +16.7% a year. Return on equity: latest +21.9%, 3-year average +19.8%, weighted +20.4%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.79 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +13.2% a year, against +20.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 17.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 93 of 100 Demandingness 18 of 100 Return on equity: latest +21.9%, 3-year average +19.8%, weighted +20.4%, direction: improving Prices frozen Share price: 127.43, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
APO	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	115.09	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 93.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +45.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +25.1% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +26.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -6.5% a year for ten years, which is 49.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+43.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 93.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +45.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +25.1% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +26.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +45.9%, 3-year average +74.4%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 28.6 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -7.0% a year for ten years, which is 50.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+43.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 93 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +45.9%, 3-year average +74.4%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +25.1% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +26.4% Growth the price implies -7.0% a year Revenue growth on file +43.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 115.09, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34
APTV	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	43.64	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 72 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +74.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 7.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.1% a year for ten years, which is 3.1% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+5.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 72 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +74.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 7.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +10.1%, 3-year average +10.1%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.1% a year for ten years, which is 3.1% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+5.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 72 of 100 Demandingness 30 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +10.1%, 3-year average +10.1%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +74.5% Share count, yearly change -7.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.7% Growth the price implies +2.1% a year Revenue growth on file +5.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 43.64, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34
IBKR	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	87.25	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 89.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +1486.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +55.9% a year; the share count is growing at 2.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +142.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -24.3% a year for ten years, which is 58.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+34.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 89.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +1486.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +55.9% a year; the share count is growing at 2.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +142.8%. Return on invested capital: one filed year is on record (+1486.4%), so there is no average or direction, and the latest year is used. The price implies free cash flow growth of -24.3% a year for ten years, which is 58.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+34.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: one filed year on record, +1486.4% Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +55.9% Share count, yearly change +2.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +142.8% Growth the price implies -24.3% a year Revenue growth on file +34.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 87.25, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
JBL	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	298.39	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 90 of 100 because return on invested capital is +36.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +93.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 7.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.7% a year for ten years, which is 14.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-3.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 66.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 90 of 100 because return on invested capital is +36.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +93.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 7.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +36.9%, 3-year average +30.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.2% a year for ten years, which is 14.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-3.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 65.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (May 31) Durability 90 of 100 Demandingness 65 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +36.9%, 3-year average +30.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +93.6% Share count, yearly change -7.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.9% Growth the price implies +10.2% a year Revenue growth on file -3.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 298.39, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
BMY	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	58.90	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 76 of 100 because return on invested capital is +18.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +2.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -0.2% a year for ten years, which is 1.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+1.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 76 of 100 because return on invested capital is +18.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +2.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +18.4%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 6.1 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -1.2% a year for ten years, which is 2.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+1.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +18.4%, 3-year average +12.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +2.9% Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +23.3% Growth the price implies -1.2% a year Revenue growth on file +1.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 58.90, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
ALL	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	226.72	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +22.0% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +23.1% a year. The price is 1.79 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +13.2% a year, against +22.0% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.58 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +28.5% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +23.1% a year. Return on equity: latest +42.3%, 3-year average +22.1%, weighted +28.5%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 20.3 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 1.82 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +13.3% a year, against +28.5% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.58 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on equity: latest +42.3%, 3-year average +22.1%, weighted +28.5%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its combined ratio disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 226.72, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34
AFL	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	112.81	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +19.3% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +20.2% a year. The price is 1.86 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +13.4% a year, against +19.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 22.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +17.8% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +20.2% a year. Return on equity: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, weighted +17.8%, direction: deteriorating. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 6.2 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 1.87 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +13.5% a year, against +17.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 27.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 90 of 100 Demandingness 28 of 100 Return on equity: latest +13.1%, 3-year average +19.3%, weighted +17.8%, direction: deteriorating Prices frozen Share price: 112.81, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34
FANG	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 8, 2026	190.35	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.9%). \| Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +16.5%). The verdict is unchanged. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 41.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 16.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.1% a year for ten years, which is 12.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+16.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 17.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 41.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 16.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.9%, 3-year average +11.3%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 3.4 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.3% a year for ten years, which is 12.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+16.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 18.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 41 of 100 Demandingness 18 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.9%, 3-year average +11.3%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +16.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.7% Growth the price implies +3.3% a year Revenue growth on file +16.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 190.35, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.9%). Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +16.5%).
FSLR	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	178.54	October 8, 2026	775.15	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 79.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.3% a year for ten years, which is 24.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+25.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 13.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 79.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +17.4%, 3-year average +18.2%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.6% a year for ten years, which is 24.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+25.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 14 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 79 of 100 Demandingness 14 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +17.4%, 3-year average +18.2%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +27.9% Growth the price implies +1.6% a year Revenue growth on file +25.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 178.54, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.15
L	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	105.87	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +9.2% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +14.3% a year. The price is 1.14 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.6% a year, against +9.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 55 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +9.2% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +14.3% a year. Return on equity: latest +9.3%, 3-year average +9.2%, weighted +9.2%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.14 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.6% a year, against +9.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 55.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 84 of 100 Demandingness 55 of 100 Return on equity: latest +9.3%, 3-year average +9.2%, weighted +9.2%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its combined ratio disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 105.87, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +9.2%).
CFG	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	62.42	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +6.7% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.6% a year. The price is 1.13 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.5% a year, against +6.7% earned. That is a demandingness score of 63.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +6.8% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.6% a year. Return on equity: latest +7.3%, 3-year average +6.7%, weighted +6.8%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.10 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.4% a year, against +6.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 62.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 61 of 100 Demandingness 63 of 100 Return on equity: latest +7.3%, 3-year average +6.7%, weighted +6.8%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 64.4% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 61.1% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 57.8%, 2021 61.4%, 2022 61.0%, 2023 67.0%, 2024 67.0%.Filed February 12, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.6% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 10.8%.Filed February 12, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 62.42, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +6.8%).
KVUE	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	17.45	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 48.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -8.1% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +12.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.8% a year for ten years, which is 5.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 48.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -8.1% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +12.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.2%, 3-year average +10.7%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.9% a year for ten years, which is 5.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 48 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.2%, 3-year average +10.7%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -8.1% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +12.4% Growth the price implies +5.9% a year Revenue growth on file +0.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 17.45, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -8.1%).
PAYX	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	101.71	October 8, 2026	774.48	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 94.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +25.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +35.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.1% a year for ten years, which is 5.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 20.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 94.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +25.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +35.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +25.9%, 3-year average +36.5%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 10.6 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.3% a year for ten years, which is 4.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 35.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (May 31) Durability 94 of 100 Demandingness 36 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +25.9%, 3-year average +36.5%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +14.6% Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +35.7% Growth the price implies +4.3% a year Revenue growth on file +9.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 101.71, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.48
PRU	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	111.75	October 8, 2026	774.48	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +9.9% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +3.7% a year. The price is 1.24 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.5% a year, against +9.9% earned. That is a demandingness score of 55.7 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.02 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +10.4% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +3.7% a year. Return on equity: latest +11.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, weighted +10.4%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.22 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.4% a year, against +10.4% earned. That is a demandingness score of 53.4 of 100. Filed revenue is 2.02 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 62 of 100 Demandingness 53 of 100 Return on equity: latest +11.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, weighted +10.4%, direction: improving Prices frozen Share price: 111.75, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.48
JPM	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	326.25	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +17.3% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +12.0% a year. The price is 2.49 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +16.0% a year, against +17.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 42.3 of 100. Assets are 12.2 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +17.2% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +12.0% a year. Return on equity: latest +16.7%, 3-year average +17.3%, weighted +17.2%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 2.45 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +15.8% a year, against +17.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 41.8 of 100. Assets are 12.2 times equity, above the 8 to 12 times range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 80 of 100 Demandingness 42 of 100 Return on equity: latest +16.7%, 3-year average +17.3%, weighted +17.2%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 52.4% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 47.6% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 55.6%, 2021 58.6%, 2022 59.2%, 2023 55.1%, 2024 51.7%.Filed February 13, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 14.6% as of December 31, 2025; 14.2% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 15.7%.Filed February 13, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: 2.50% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 2.40% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2023 2.70%, 2024 2.63%.Filed February 13, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 326.25, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38
DXCM	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	83.85	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 87.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +72.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +28.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.8% a year for ten years, which is 7.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+17.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 34.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 87.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.2% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +72.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +28.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +19.2%, 3-year average +14.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 4.9 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.3% a year for ten years, which is 7.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+17.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 33.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 87 of 100 Demandingness 33 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +19.2%, 3-year average +14.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +72.9% Share count, yearly change -0.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +28.3% Growth the price implies +9.3% a year Revenue growth on file +17.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 83.85, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09
CBOE	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	287.05	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 91.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +22.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +43.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +37.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.0% a year for ten years, which is 3.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+6.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 32.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 91.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +22.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +43.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +37.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +22.4%, 3-year average +18.2%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.7% a year for ten years, which is 1.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+6.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 36.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 37 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +22.4%, 3-year average +18.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +43.3% Share count, yearly change -0.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +37.0% Growth the price implies +4.7% a year Revenue growth on file +6.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 287.05, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
SCHW	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	95.81	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +17.3% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +18.7% a year. The price is 3.83 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +21.3% a year, against +17.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 64.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +18.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +18.7% a year. Return on equity: latest +20.6%, 3-year average +17.3%, weighted +18.1%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 3.77 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +21.1% a year, against +18.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 60.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 90 of 100 Demandingness 61 of 100 Return on equity: latest +20.6%, 3-year average +17.3%, weighted +18.1%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 52.1% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 48.1% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 63.2%, 2021 58.4%, 2022 54.8%, 2023 66.1%, 2024 60.8%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 30.4% as of December 31, 2025; 24.4% as of June 30, 2026.Earlier year ends: 2024 31.7%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: 2.74% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 3.00% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2023 1.98%, 2024 2.12%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 95.81, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
DPZ	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	305.31	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 90.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +71.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +3.5% a year for ten years, which is 0.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 33.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 90.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +71.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +71.7%, 3-year average +68.2%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.2% a year for ten years, which is 1.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 35.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 36 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +71.7%, 3-year average +68.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +22.5% Share count, yearly change -1.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +13.0% Growth the price implies +4.2% a year Revenue growth on file +2.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 305.31, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09
HBAN	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	15.00	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +10.7% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.5% a year. The price is 1.04 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.2% a year, against +10.7% earned. That is a demandingness score of 46.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +10.7% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +8.5% a year. Return on equity: latest +10.6%, 3-year average +10.7%, weighted +10.7%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.02 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.1% a year, against +10.7% earned. That is a demandingness score of 46.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 69 of 100 Demandingness 47 of 100 Return on equity: latest +10.6%, 3-year average +10.7%, weighted +10.7%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 61.4% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 69.0% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 58.0%, 2021 73.0%, 2022 57.9%, 2023 62.1%, 2024 61.8%.Filed February 13, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.4% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 10.5%.Filed February 13, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 15.00, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
DLTR	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	117.66	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 75.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +19.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -0.4% a year for ten years, which is 8.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+8.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 75.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +19.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.0%, 3-year average +9.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -0.3% a year for ten years, which is 8.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+8.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +12.0%, 3-year average +9.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +19.3% Share count, yearly change -3.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +9.9% Growth the price implies -0.3% a year Revenue growth on file +8.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 117.66, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09
XYZ	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	74.17	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 66.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of 0.0% a year for ten years, which is 11.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+11.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 66.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 5.3 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.1% a year for ten years, which is 11.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+11.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 10.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 67 of 100 Demandingness 10 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +7.5%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +15.5% Growth the price implies +0.1% a year Revenue growth on file +11.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 74.17, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
RF	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	26.43	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +12.1% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +10.1% a year. The price is 1.32 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.3% a year, against +12.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 44.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +12.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +10.1% a year. Return on equity: latest +12.2%, 3-year average +12.2%, weighted +12.1%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.29 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.2% a year, against +12.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 44.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 72 of 100 Demandingness 45 of 100 Return on equity: latest +12.2%, 3-year average +12.2%, weighted +12.1%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 57.3% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 58.8% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 57.9%, 2021 58.2%, 2022 56.4%, 2023 58.3%, 2024 59.9%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 10.9% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 10.8%.Filed February 24, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 26.43, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
HOOD	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	108.41	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 59.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +56.9% a year for ten years, which is 8.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+48.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 98.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 59.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +13.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +13.6%, 3-year average +4.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 9.3 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +55.7% a year for ten years, which is 6.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+48.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 97.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 60 of 100 Demandingness 98 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +13.6%, 3-year average +4.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.6% Growth the price implies +55.7% a year Revenue growth on file +48.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 108.41, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
KEY	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 8, 2026	19.61	October 8, 2026	774.38	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +5.8%). \| Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +5.7%). The verdict is unchanged. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +5.0% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +11.4% a year. The price is 1.25 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.0% a year, against +5.0% earned. That is a demandingness score of 71.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +5.8% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +11.4% a year. Return on equity: latest +10.1%, 3-year average +5.0%, weighted +5.8%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The latest year and the average are 5.0 points apart, so this call leans on the weighted figure. The price is 1.22 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +10.9% a year, against +5.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 68.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 59 of 100 Demandingness 68 of 100 Return on equity: latest +10.1%, 3-year average +5.0%, weighted +5.8%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 62.9% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 62.2% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 61.5%, 2021 61.0%, 2022 60.9%, 2023 74.2%, 2024 99.4%.Filed February 23, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 11.8% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.9%.Filed February 23, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its margin disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 19.61, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.38 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on equity is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (weighted over the filed years +5.8%). Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +5.7%).
CRM	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	221.01	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 78.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +55.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +34.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.2% a year for ten years, which is 8.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 13.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 78.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +55.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.8% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +34.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +10.5%, 3-year average +9.4%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.7% a year for ten years, which is 9.1% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 11.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 79 of 100 Demandingness 12 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +10.5%, 3-year average +9.4%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +55.9% Share count, yearly change -1.8% Trailing free cash flow margin +34.5% Growth the price implies +0.7% a year Revenue growth on file +9.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 221.01, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46

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Source: company filings via Yahoo Finance fundamentals, live prices via Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 via the SPY fund. Rules version v6. Returns are price only.