Decision Record

Each Decision Card is one dated call on one S&P 500 company: high-conviction buy, buy and watch, hold with no edge, sell, or insufficient evidence. The call is frozen on the day it is published, with the share price, the S&P 500 that day, the rationale, and the measured inputs. Twelve months later it is graded against those stored prices, never against a later rewrite of the rules. A Saturday publication still uses the prior session's close, and that is labelled on each row. When rationale wording is later upgraded, the change is logged as an amendment: the original freeze is preserved and the amended text is shown separately with a date stamp.

Page rendered October 30, 2026 at 6:24 AM Eastern. This stamp is when this HTML was built, not the prior session close labelled on each row.

Published calls

489

Names

413

Share of the S&P 500

82.9%

Written holds

200

Graded over twelve months

Hit rate

Not shown yet (0 of 30 graded)

A hit rate is shown only after 30 directional calls (high-conviction buy, buy and watch, or sell) have been graded over a full twelve-month horizon. So far 0 have been graded. Until then the dated list is the record, not a summary.

How a call is graded

Verdicts are made from business durability, what the price already expects, and measurable disconfirming conditions. Grading comes later.

Grading is relative to the S&P 500: the frozen share price on the row versus the frozen S&P 500 (SPY) entry already on that row, never today's prices or an absolute return alone.
A high-conviction buy or a buy-and-watch is a hit if the stock beat the S&P 500 over twelve months.
A sell is a hit if the stock lagged the S&P 500 over twelve months.
Hold is a written abstention from grading: it counts toward coverage of the S&P 500 and is never a hit or a miss.
Coverage is unique written names divided by the S&P 500 universe. A refusal (insufficient evidence) is not written, so it does not count. A bank, lender or insurer that receives a real call does count. Property trusts stay refused.
Returns are price only. Dividends are left out of both the stock and the S&P 500.
Operating companies (rules v4) are read from free cash flow. Banks and lenders (bank-v4) and insurance underwriters (insurer-v4) are read from common equity, priced against the newest book value on file, and from the return the price already requires. Those are separate standards: a bank call does not amend an operating company call. Property trusts, insurance brokers, incomplete filings and negative free cash flow on an operating company stay refused. The analysis page still does not show a Graham or discounted-cash-flow intrinsic for a bank or insurer.
A bank or insurer row can also carry reported readings: for a bank the efficiency ratio as filed, the common equity tier 1 ratio and the net interest margin the bank reports, and for a property and casualty insurer the combined ratio it reports, each only where the company's report has been checked. They are shown beside the call and are never part of the score, so a row can be read with or without them. A reading that could not be read is listed as not shown, with the reason, rather than left out.
Each frozen row keeps its rationale, the input snapshot, an honest price-as-of label, and the S&P 500 entry price, so relative performance can be audited. A weekend or holiday publish dates the price to the last NYSE session, never the calendar day of publication.
Rationale wording is versioned by amendment. A rules upgrade writes a new freeze that preserves the original rationale and shows the amended text with a dated stamp. If the original freeze cannot be recovered, the page says so rather than claiming the text was never rewritten. The amended rationale uses the same reason list as the live card for that rules version (prefer two real reasons; a third only when it adds a distinct company-specific input). A superseded prior freeze does not count again in the track record. The original freeze is labelled with its rules version (for example at freeze, v1), never left as an unlabeled generic block.
Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when the call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict.
Call weakening is a visible state on a row, not a change of verdict. When two or more of a call's own disconfirm conditions are already broken when it is issued, the row says how many are broken and which. It never moves the call. A single broken condition is still listed as already broken.
The return a call is built on differs by kind of company. For banks and insurers (return on equity) it is weighted toward the latest filed year: half the latest, three tenths the prior year and a fifth the oldest of the last three, and the row says when the call leans on the weighted figure because the latest year and the average sit far apart. For operating companies (return on invested capital) it is the latest fiscal year, and the average of the last three years and the direction are shown beside it as a reading and never scored.
Inputs are checked before a call is issued. When the income statement grades B or better while that return is under 4 percent, the latest year is recomputed from the company's own filed statements. If the filing agrees, the call proceeds and the row says it was checked. If it differs, the filed figure is used and the row says it was corrected. If it cannot be checked, no call is issued and the name is left as it was.
Each row states the period its filings run through. A call is not issued on data that has gone stale: when the report a company should have filed by now (its next quarterly or annual report, by its own filer status, plus a few days) is not in the inputs, the card reads data stale, says whether that report is still awaited or is already filed and not yet in our data, and no call is written. A call already on this page is never changed by that.

Rules versions

Frozen originals are never rewritten. A rules upgrade that leaves a call's verdict unchanged amends it: the original prose stays, labelled with the version it was written under, and the amended text is shown beside it. An upgrade that changes the verdict writes a new dated call and leaves the earlier one exactly as it was published, graded on its own. bank-v4 and insurer-v4 are the bank and insurer standards. They do not amend an operating company call.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

v1: Generic band-language rationale. No already-broken flags. Calendar-day price labels.
v2: Concrete Why citing filed figures; already-broken watch conditions; NYSE session-close price labels.
v3: Amended rationale matches the live two-reason preference; a third line only when it adds a distinct company input. Operating companies only.
bank-v3: Bank and lender standard, parallel to v3, not a successor. Durability is return on equity (averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file), book value per share, the share count at a small weight because book value per share already reflects dilution, and assets per dollar of equity. Equity is common equity, after preferred stock, and the price is read against the newest book value on file rather than the last fiscal year's. The price is the return on equity it requires, with growth in that identity held at 6%. A price under 0.8 times book while return on equity is below 10% is a writedown, not a bargain. Does not amend a v3 call.
insurer-v3: Insurance underwriter standard, parallel to v3 and to bank-v3. Book value per share outweighs return on equity, which is averaged over the filed years when three or more are on file. Equity is common equity and the price is read against the newest book value on file. Filed revenue per dollar of equity replaces assets per dollar of equity. Does not amend a v3 or bank-v3 call.
v4: Operating companies, successor to v3. The return on invested capital the card scores is still the latest fiscal year's, as under v3; the card now prints the three-year average and a direction beside it as a reading, and never scores them. (Weighting the earlier years into the score was built and measured on the S&P 500 and moved 23 verdicts with nothing to say which side was right, so it was not kept.) Also new: a scores legend; a check of the return against the filed figures when the income statement grades B or better beside a return under 4%; a call weakening state when two or more disconfirm conditions are already broken (the verdict is unchanged by it); the period the filings run through; and a stale-data rule tied to each company's filing deadlines. Why: a healthy income statement beside a tiny return can be a bad feed figure, and a call on filings a full report out of date should not read as confident. Amends the open v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
v5: Operating companies, successor to v4, decided by the owner after measuring each rule on the S&P 500 (docs/decision-v5-measurement.md). A High-conviction buy must also show a lasting return (return on invested capital: median of the last three measured years at least 10% and no year under 8%), net debt of at most five years of free cash flow, and, for a cyclical company whose margins are in the peak zone of its own filed years, a High-conviction buy on its median margins; a call that fails any of these reads Buy, watch and names the reason. A one-off cash margin spike (the last four quarters over 1.5 times the median fiscal year and more than 5 points above it) is read at the median margin on today's revenue. Revenue growth makes a price read as cheaper only if revenue grew in at least two of the three years, is not measured from a slump year (revenue and operating margin both collapsed; a divestiture is not a slump) and counts at most 25% a year. Brokers holding client cash and asset managers with an insurance balance sheet (IBKR, HOOD, APO, KKR) get no call. Why: on v4, 79 of about 500 companies read High-conviction buy, including peak-cycle earnings, one-off cash windfalls, heavily indebted companies and cash flows the card cannot read; v5 measured 45 before the owner softened three thresholds. Amends the open v4 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v4 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
v6: Operating companies, successor to v5. A jump in the cash margin that operating profit backs is read as growth, not as a one-off: when operating margin rose by at least half as much as the cash margin, free cash flow is no more than 1.1 times operating profit, and the company is not a cyclical business in the peak zone of its own filed years, the price is read against the cash flow as it stands instead of the median margin. Customer deposits, an inventory release and a cut in capital spending raise cash without profit and are still read at the median margin. Why: measured on the S&P 500, the v5 rule discounted companies whose margins had genuinely improved; of the 40 companies it flags, two verdicts change (Howmet and Hasbro, Hold to Buy, watch). Amends the open v5 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; a changed verdict is a new call and the v5 call stays on the record and is graded on its own.
bank-v4: Bank and lender standard, successor to bank-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average over the filed years, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4. The newest balance sheet is also read when the quarterly report does not state the preferred stock amount, by carrying the last known amount forward while the number of preferred shares is unchanged (exact, since preferred stock sits at a fixed amount per share), and a cover-page share count dated up to 45 days after the balance sheet is accepted and dated on the card (it was 7). Why: one year of a loss, or one boom year, should not decide the return the price is read against, and Bank of America was being priced on a March 31 balance sheet with June 30 filed. Amends the open bank-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen bank-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.
insurer-v4: Insurance underwriter standard, successor to insurer-v3. The return on equity is weighted toward the latest filed years (50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest, renormalized over fewer years) instead of a plain average, and the card states the latest, the three-year average, the weighted figure and a direction. The scores legend, the input check against filed net income and equity, call weakening, the period the filings run through and the stale-data rule are the same as in v4, and so are the preferred stock carry-forward and the 45 day cover-page share count (Cincinnati Financial files no share count in its balance sheet; its cover count is dated 22 days after June 30). Amends the open insurer-v3 call on the next weekday publish when the verdict is unchanged; the frozen insurer-v3 row is kept and the amendment shown.

Open calls

Every published call that has not yet reached its twelve-month date, newest first. A name appears more than once when its verdict changed and the earlier call is still open. Expand each row's evidence for the rationale and the inputs frozen that day.

Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it.

Showing 351 to 400 of 489 open calls. Journal read October 30, 2026 at 6:24 AM Eastern.

Symbol	Call	Published	Price at the call	Price as of	S&P 500 entry	Horizon
WAT	Hold, no edge Heavy debt	October 23, 2026	452.00	October 23, 2026	762.56	12 months
Heavy debt. Net debt is 11.4 years of free cash flow, and operating profit covers interest 2.5 times: more than 10 years with less than 3 times cover. The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 11.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 2.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 74.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +20.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +7.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +30.9% a year for ten years, which is 28.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 74.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +20.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +7.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +20.5%, 3-year average +23.9%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +31.4% a year for ten years, which is 29.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 75 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +20.5%, 3-year average +23.9%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +7.7% Share count, yearly change +0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.6% Growth the price implies +31.4% a year Revenue growth on file +2.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 452.00, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.56 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +31.4%, revenue +2.1%, ceiling +17.1%).
HAS	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	117.08	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 6.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v5) Business durability scores 86.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +24.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +73.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +12.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 10.2 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.3% a year for ten years, which is 18.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 67.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 90.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +24.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +73.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 10.2 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.0% a year for ten years, which is 11.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 50 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +73.7% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.8% Growth the price implies +4.0% a year Revenue growth on file -7.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 117.08, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71
WMT	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	120.17	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 62.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +1.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +23.7% a year for ten years, which is 18.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+5.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 88.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 62.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +1.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +15.1%, 3-year average +15.6%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +25.0% a year for ten years, which is 19.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+5.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 91.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 62 of 100 Demandingness 91 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +15.1%, 3-year average +15.6%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +1.8% Growth the price implies +25.0% a year Revenue growth on file +5.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 120.17, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +25.0%, revenue +5.3%, ceiling +20.3%).
IR	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	73.77	October 23, 2026	762.71	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.9 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.8 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 69.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +20.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.3% a year for ten years, which is 1.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 69.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +20.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.5%, 3-year average +8.9%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.9% a year for ten years, which is 0.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 49.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 70 of 100 Demandingness 50 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.5%, 3-year average +8.9%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +20.7% Share count, yearly change -1.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +15.4% Growth the price implies +9.9% a year Revenue growth on file +8.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 73.77, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.71 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.5%).
PLTR	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	196.12	October 23, 2026	762.50	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 79.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +23.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 4.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +54.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +34.2% a year for ten years, which is 1.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+32.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 87.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 79.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +23.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 4.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +35.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +23.9%, 3-year average +13.1%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 10.9 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +41.1% a year for ten years, which is 16.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+25.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 80 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +23.9%, 3-year average +13.1%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +4.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +35.6% Growth the price implies +41.1% a year Revenue growth on file +25.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 196.12, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.50 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +41.1%, revenue +25.0%, ceiling +40.0%).
NSC	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	331.67	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 9.5 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 64.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.1% a year for ten years, which is 19.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-1.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 79.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 64.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.7%, 3-year average +12.2%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +19.0% a year for ten years, which is 20.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-1.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 80.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 64 of 100 Demandingness 81 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.7%, 3-year average +12.2%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +13.0% Growth the price implies +19.0% a year Revenue growth on file -1.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 331.67, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +19.0%, revenue -1.5%, ceiling +13.5%).
JKHY	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	160.05	October 23, 2026	762.55	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 117.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 91.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +23.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +50.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +19.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.0% a year for ten years, which is 1.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+7.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 45.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 91.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +23.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +50.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +19.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +23.8%, 3-year average +21.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.1% a year for ten years, which is 2.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+7.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 47.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 92 of 100 Demandingness 48 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +23.8%, 3-year average +21.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +50.0% Share count, yearly change -1.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +19.9% Growth the price implies +9.1% a year Revenue growth on file +7.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 160.05, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.55
MSI	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	477.98	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 7.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 93 of 100 because return on invested capital is +26.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +18.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +12.3% a year for ten years, which is 3.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 54.1 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 93 of 100 because return on invested capital is +26.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +18.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +26.5%, 3-year average +32.6%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.0% a year for ten years, which is 4.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 93 of 100 Demandingness 55 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +26.5%, 3-year average +32.6%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +18.2% Share count, yearly change -0.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.9% Growth the price implies +13.0% a year Revenue growth on file +8.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 477.98, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64
ADSK	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	251.15	October 23, 2026	762.74	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 30.6 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 86.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +35.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +5.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +36.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.1% a year for ten years, which is 8.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 20.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 86.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +35.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +5.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +36.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +35.4%, 3-year average +37.1%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.8% a year for ten years, which is 6.1% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+12.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 27 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q2 2027 (July 31) Durability 87 of 100 Demandingness 27 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +35.4%, 3-year average +37.1%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +5.6% Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +36.0% Growth the price implies +6.8% a year Revenue growth on file +12.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 251.15, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.74
ADBE	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	264.73	October 23, 2026	762.81	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 35.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 97.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +56.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +40.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -3.9% a year for ten years, which is 14.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+10.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 97.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is +56.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +40.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +56.0%, 3-year average +47.3%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -1.9% a year for ten years, which is 12.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+10.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (August 31) Durability 98 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +56.0%, 3-year average +47.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +14.1% Share count, yearly change -3.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +40.8% Growth the price implies -1.9% a year Revenue growth on file +10.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 264.73, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.81
OKE	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	96.81	October 23, 2026	762.50	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.7%). \| Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +12.1%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 11.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 3.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 34.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 12.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.2% a year for ten years, which is 7.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+14.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 28 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 34.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 12.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +7.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.6%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.4% a year for ten years, which is 6.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+14.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 35 of 100 Demandingness 31 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.6%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +12.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +7.4% Growth the price implies +8.4% a year Revenue growth on file +14.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 96.81, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.50 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.7%). Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +12.1%).
CDW	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	162.65	October 23, 2026	762.48	12 months
Debt: net debt is 6.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 7.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 59.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -2.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.7%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.0% a year for ten years, which is 8.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-1.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 59.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -2.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +15.8%, 3-year average +16.6%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.0% a year for ten years, which is 11.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-1.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 65 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 60 of 100 Demandingness 65 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +15.8%, 3-year average +16.6%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -2.0% Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.7% Growth the price implies +10.0% a year Revenue growth on file -1.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 162.65, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.48 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -2.0%).
CI	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	308.96	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 6.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 60.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 4.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -5.3% a year for ten years, which is 20.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+15.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 60.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +10.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 4.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +3.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +10.1%, 3-year average +9.1%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -3.5% a year for ten years, which is 18.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+15.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 61 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +10.1%, 3-year average +9.1%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -4.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +3.2% Growth the price implies -3.5% a year Revenue growth on file +15.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 308.96, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19
SHW	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	339.19	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.7 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 7.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 81.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +31.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.7% a year for ten years, which is 8.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 81.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +31.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +17.7%, 3-year average +18.2%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.1% a year for ten years, which is 9.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 82 of 100 Demandingness 52 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +17.7%, 3-year average +18.2%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +31.0% Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +13.2% Growth the price implies +11.1% a year Revenue growth on file +2.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 339.19, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
WM	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	239.15	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 6.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.2 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 71.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +12.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.7% a year for ten years, which is 1.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 49.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 71.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +12.8% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +13.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.3%, 3-year average +12.2%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.7% a year for ten years, which is 3.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 52.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 71 of 100 Demandingness 53 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.3%, 3-year average +12.2%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +12.8% Share count, yearly change -0.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +13.9% Growth the price implies +11.7% a year Revenue growth on file +8.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 239.15, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70
NDSN	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	319.95	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 8.8 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 76.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.2% a year; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +24.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.1% a year for ten years, which is 8.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.9 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 76.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +14.2% a year; the share count is growing at 0.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +24.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.6%, 3-year average +12.5%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.9% a year for ten years, which is 8.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (July 31) Durability 77 of 100 Demandingness 52 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.6%, 3-year average +12.5%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +14.2% Share count, yearly change +0.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +24.3% Growth the price implies +10.9% a year Revenue growth on file +2.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 319.95, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64
SBUX	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	101.46	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 2.7 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 7.0 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 63.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -2.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.1% a year for ten years, which is 8.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 63.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +17.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -2.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +9.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +17.5%, 3-year average +26.1%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 8.6 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.0% a year for ten years, which is 9.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+4.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 57 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 63 of 100 Demandingness 57 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +17.5%, 3-year average +26.1%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -2.1% Share count, yearly change -0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +9.5% Growth the price implies +14.0% a year Revenue growth on file +4.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 101.46, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -2.1%).
MCK	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	1009.33	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.7 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 24.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 64.8 of 100 because the share count is shrinking at 4.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +1.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.9% a year for ten years, which is 8.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+13.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 22.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 64.8 of 100 because the share count is shrinking at 4.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +1.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.1% a year for ten years, which is 6.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+13.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 27.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (June 30) Durability 65 of 100 Demandingness 28 of 100 Share count, yearly change -4.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +1.5% Growth the price implies +7.1% a year Revenue growth on file +13.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 1009.33, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64
APP	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	262.01	October 23, 2026	762.74	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 25.8 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 97.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +101.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +165.4% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +65.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.7% a year for ten years, which is 15.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+24.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 34.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 97.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +101.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +165.4% a year; the share count is shrinking at 3.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +65.9%. Return on invested capital: latest +101.0%, 3-year average +52.3%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 48.7 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.4% a year for ten years, which is 17.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+24.8% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 28.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 98 of 100 Demandingness 29 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +101.0%, 3-year average +52.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +165.4% Share count, yearly change -3.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +65.9% Growth the price implies +7.4% a year Revenue growth on file +24.8% a year Prices frozen Share price: 262.01, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.74
UNP	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	293.21	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 4.3 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 7.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 78.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +25.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.8% a year for ten years, which is 11.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 66.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 78.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +15.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +25.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +15.6%, 3-year average +15.3%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.3% a year for ten years, which is 11.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 67.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q3 2026 (September 30) Durability 79 of 100 Demandingness 67 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +15.6%, 3-year average +15.3%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -1.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +25.4% Growth the price implies +11.3% a year Revenue growth on file -0.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 293.21, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70
CPRT	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	28.88	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 88.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +21.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +13.6% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +28.9%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.0% a year for ten years, which is 2.9% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42.4 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 88.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +21.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +13.6% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +27.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +21.9%, 3-year average +24.0%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.4% a year for ten years, which is 1.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 46.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (July 31) Durability 88 of 100 Demandingness 46 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +21.9%, 3-year average +24.0%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +13.6% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +27.2% Growth the price implies +8.4% a year Revenue growth on file +9.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 28.88, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19
SNA	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	352.62	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 26.6 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 85.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +21.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.7% a year for ten years, which is 3.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 85.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +21.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.0%. Return on invested capital: latest +19.0%, 3-year average +19.4%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.0% a year for ten years, which is 2.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 37.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 86 of 100 Demandingness 38 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +19.0%, 3-year average +19.4%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +21.5% Share count, yearly change -0.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +21.0% Growth the price implies +5.0% a year Revenue growth on file +2.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 352.62, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
AMCR	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	46.15	October 23, 2026	762.81	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.3%). \| Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +16.9%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 10.5 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 3.3 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 35.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +1.8% a year; the share count is growing at 16.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.2%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +4.6% a year for ten years, which is 12.3% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+17.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 21.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 35.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +1.8% a year; the share count is growing at 16.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.3%, 3-year average +7.8%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.8% a year for ten years, which is 11.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+17.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 24.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 36 of 100 Demandingness 24 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.3%, 3-year average +7.8%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +1.8% Share count, yearly change +16.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.2% Growth the price implies +5.8% a year Revenue growth on file +17.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 46.15, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.81 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.3%). Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +16.9%).
AMD	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	521.00	October 23, 2026	762.81	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.0%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +38.7%, revenue +13.6%, ceiling +28.6%). The verdict is unchanged. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v1) Business durability scores 62.2 of 100 (mid). The strongest reading is owner free cash flow per share, yearly change at 100 of 100. The price implies free cash flow growth of +32.8% a year for ten years, which is +19.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing. That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Either the business is mixed, or the price already assumes most of the growth the filings support, so there is no edge from here. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 58.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +5.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +35.3% a year; the share count is growing at 0.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +11.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +5.0%, 3-year average +2.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +38.7% a year for ten years, which is 25.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+13.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 58 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +5.0%, 3-year average +2.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +35.3% Share count, yearly change +0.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +11.3% Growth the price implies +38.7% a year Revenue growth on file +13.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 521.00, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.81 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +5.0%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +38.7%, revenue +13.6%, ceiling +28.6%).
MPWR	Hold, no edge	October 23, 2026	1161.85	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 88.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +25.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +150.4% a year; the share count is growing at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +31.5% a year for ten years, which is 15.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+15.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 88.8 of 100 because return on invested capital is +25.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +150.4% a year; the share count is growing at 1.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +25.0%, 3-year average +25.1%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +29.6% a year for ten years, which is 13.8% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+15.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 99.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 99 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +25.0%, 3-year average +25.1%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +150.4% Share count, yearly change +1.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.8% Growth the price implies +29.6% a year Revenue growth on file +15.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 1161.85, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64
STE	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	231.14	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.5 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 18.8 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 70.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +37.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.0% a year for ten years, in line with the revenue growth already on file (+9.4% a year). That is a demandingness score of 47.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 70.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +37.1% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +15.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.5%, 3-year average +8.3%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.4% a year for ten years, which is 1.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 50.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (June 30) Durability 71 of 100 Demandingness 51 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.5%, 3-year average +8.3%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +37.1% Share count, yearly change -0.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +15.3% Growth the price implies +10.4% a year Revenue growth on file +9.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 231.14, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.5%).
TTWO	Sell, exit	October 23, 2026	205.97	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 3.4 years of free cash flow; operating profit is negative, so interest is not covered by it. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 21.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is -1.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.0%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +31.5% a year for ten years, which is 23.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+7.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 21.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is -1.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +5.0%. Return on invested capital: latest -1.8%, 3-year average -6.5%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 4.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +31.8% a year for ten years, which is 24.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+7.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (June 30) Durability 22 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest -1.8%, 3-year average -6.5%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +3.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +5.0% Growth the price implies +31.8% a year Revenue growth on file +7.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 205.97, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
CSGP	Sell, exit Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	34.66	October 23, 2026	762.19	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: the growth the price implies is already within 15 percentage points of the revenue growth on file (implied +23.1%, revenue +14.2%, ceiling +29.2%). \| Already broken: trailing free cash flow margin is already above 5% (latest +6.4%). The verdict is unchanged. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 27.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is -1.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +19.7% a year for ten years, which is 5.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+14.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 67 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 27.7 of 100 because return on invested capital is -1.0% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +6.4%. Return on invested capital: latest -1.0%, 3-year average +2.0%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +23.1% a year for ten years, which is 9.0% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+14.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 73 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 28 of 100 Demandingness 73 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest -1.0%, 3-year average +2.0%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +6.4% Growth the price implies +23.1% a year Revenue growth on file +14.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 34.66, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.19 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already within 15 percentage points of the revenue growth on file (implied +23.1%, revenue +14.2%, ceiling +29.2%). Already broken: trailing free cash flow margin is already above 5% (latest +6.4%).
TPL	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	345.01	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -65.5%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +46.8%, revenue +6.1%, ceiling +21.1%). The verdict is unchanged. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 61.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -65.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +46.6% a year for ten years, which is 40.5% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 61.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +44.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -65.5% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +8.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +44.6%, 3-year average +84.5%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 39.8 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +46.8% a year for ten years, which is 40.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+6.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 100 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 62 of 100 Demandingness 100 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +44.6%, 3-year average +84.5%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -65.5% Share count, yearly change -0.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +8.5% Growth the price implies +46.8% a year Revenue growth on file +6.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 345.01, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -65.5%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +46.8%, revenue +6.1%, ceiling +21.1%).
UHS	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	188.04	October 23, 2026	762.70	12 months
Debt: net debt is 5.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 13.4 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v5) Business durability scores 75.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +68.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +10.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.2% a year for ten years, which is 6.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 15.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 75.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +12.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +68.3% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.7% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +10.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.5% a year for ten years, which is 6.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+9.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 16.3 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 75 of 100 Demandingness 16 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +12.8%, 3-year average +10.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +68.3% Share count, yearly change -4.7% Trailing free cash flow margin +4.5% Growth the price implies +2.5% a year Revenue growth on file +9.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 188.04, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.70
BLDR	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	56.90	October 23, 2026	762.48	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.5%). \| Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -32.2%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 7.1 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 1.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 41.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -32.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 7.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -2.3% a year for ten years, which is 10.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-12.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 41.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +7.5% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at -32.2% a year; the share count is shrinking at 7.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +4.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +7.5%, 3-year average +14.1%, direction: deteriorating. The latest year and the average are 6.6 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -2.5% a year for ten years, which is 10.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-12.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 30 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 42 of 100 Demandingness 30 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +7.5%, 3-year average +14.1%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change -32.2% Share count, yearly change -7.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +4.4% Growth the price implies -2.5% a year Revenue growth on file -12.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 56.90, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.48 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +7.5%). Already broken: owner free cash flow per share is already negative (latest yearly change -32.2%).
NDAQ	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	103.39	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.8%). \| Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +5.0%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 4.2 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 7.9 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 55.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +2.8% a year; the share count is growing at 5.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.6% a year for ten years, which is 1.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 52.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 55.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +2.8% a year; the share count is growing at 5.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.8%, 3-year average +8.4%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +13.1% a year for ten years, which is 3.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 55.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 55 of 100 Demandingness 56 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.8%, 3-year average +8.4%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +2.8% Share count, yearly change +5.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +22.3% Growth the price implies +13.1% a year Revenue growth on file +9.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 103.39, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.8%). Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +5.0%).
OXY	Hold, no edge Call weakening 2 of 4	October 23, 2026	64.44	October 23, 2026	762.64	12 months
Call weakening: 2 of 4 disconfirm conditions are already broken. Broken: Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +4.3%). \| Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +2.3%, revenue -16.2%, ceiling -1.2%). The verdict is unchanged. Debt: net debt is 1.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 5.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 42.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +4.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.6% a year for ten years, which is 16.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-16.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 41.5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 42.2 of 100 because return on invested capital is +4.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 3.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +4.3%, 3-year average +5.5%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.3% a year for ten years, which is 18.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-16.2% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 45.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 42 of 100 Demandingness 46 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +4.3%, 3-year average +5.5%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +3.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +22.1% Growth the price implies +2.3% a year Revenue growth on file -16.2% a year Prices frozen Share price: 64.44, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.64 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +4.3%). Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +2.3%, revenue -16.2%, ceiling -1.2%).
PG	Buy, watch	October 23, 2026	161.70	October 23, 2026	762.50	12 months
Debt: net debt is 1.6 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 22.5 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 75.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +3.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.4%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +9.4% a year for ten years, which is 7.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 48.6 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 75.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +3.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +17.4%. Return on invested capital: latest +19.9%, 3-year average +20.9%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +10.6% a year for ten years, which is 8.6% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+2.0% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 51.1 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 51 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +19.9%, 3-year average +20.9%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +3.9% Share count, yearly change -0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +17.4% Growth the price implies +10.6% a year Revenue growth on file +2.0% a year Prices frozen Share price: 161.70, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.50
TPR	High-conviction buy	October 23, 2026	112.17	October 23, 2026	762.62	12 months
Debt: net debt is 0.8 years of free cash flow; operating profit covers interest 34.7 times. Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-23 (rules version v6). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 97.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +42.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +39.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.3% a year for ten years, which is 5.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+6.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 13.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-23, v6) Business durability scores 97.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +42.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +39.6% a year; the share count is shrinking at 4.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +42.9%, 3-year average +28.0%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 14.9 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.2% a year for ten years, which is 5.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+6.3% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 12.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (June 30) Durability 98 of 100 Demandingness 13 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +42.9%, 3-year average +28.0%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +39.6% Share count, yearly change -4.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +22.6% Growth the price implies +1.2% a year Revenue growth on file +6.3% a year Prices frozen Share price: 112.17, Session close of 2026-10-23 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 762.62
HAS	Hold, no edge	October 22, 2026	115.49	October 22, 2026	763.85	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-22 (rules version v5). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 90.6 of 100 because return on invested capital is +24.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +73.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +21.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +0.1% a year for ten years, which is 7.2% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 25.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-22, v5) Business durability scores 86.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +24.1% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +73.7% a year; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +12.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 10.2 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +11.3% a year for ten years, which is 18.4% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-7.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 67.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 86 of 100 Demandingness 67 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +24.1%, 3-year average +13.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +73.7% Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +12.6% Growth the price implies +11.3% a year Revenue growth on file -7.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 115.49, Session close of 2026-10-22 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 763.85 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the growth the price implies is already more than 15 percentage points above the revenue growth on file (implied +11.3%, revenue -7.1%, ceiling +7.9%).
CME	High-conviction buy	October 22, 2026	305.77	October 22, 2026	763.00	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-22 (rules version v5). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 76 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +12.5% a year; the share count is growing at 0.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +62.2%. The price sits below any ten-year growth rate the model will solve (the business would have to shrink more than 50% a year), so the demandingness score is 5 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-22, v5) Business durability scores 76 of 100 because return on invested capital is +11.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +12.5% a year; the share count is growing at 0.0% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +62.2%. Return on invested capital: latest +11.8%, 3-year average +10.9%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price sits below any ten-year growth rate the model will solve (the business would have to shrink more than 50% a year), so the demandingness score is 5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 76 of 100 Demandingness 5 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +11.8%, 3-year average +10.9%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +12.5% Share count, yearly change 0.0% Trailing free cash flow margin +62.2% Revenue growth on file +9.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 305.77, Session close of 2026-10-22 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 763.00
MNST	Hold, no edge	October 20, 2026	47.48	October 20, 2026	769.50	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 95.5 of 100 because return on invested capital is +33.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +46.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 2.2% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +22.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +33.9%, 3-year average +29.2%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.7% a year for ten years, which is 9.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+9.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 65.2 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 96 of 100 Demandingness 65 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +33.9%, 3-year average +29.2%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +46.9% Share count, yearly change -2.2% Trailing free cash flow margin +22.6% Growth the price implies +18.7% a year Revenue growth on file +9.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 47.48, Session close of 2026-10-20 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 769.50
VRT	High-conviction buy	October 15, 2026	210.15	October 15, 2026	770.22	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-15 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 90.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +25.5%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +14.2% a year for ten years, which is 7.4% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+21.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 42.3 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-15, v4) Business durability scores 90.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +29.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 0.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +25.5%. Return on invested capital: latest +29.6%, 3-year average +22.6%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 7.0 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +12.1% a year for ten years, which is 9.5% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+21.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 38.7 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 39 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +29.6%, 3-year average +22.6%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change +0.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +25.5% Growth the price implies +12.1% a year Revenue growth on file +21.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 210.15, Session close of 2026-10-15 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 770.22
CTAS	Hold, no edge	October 15, 2026	212.32	October 15, 2026	769.33	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 90.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +28.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +15.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +16.7%. Return on invested capital: latest +28.6%, 3-year average +27.1%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +18.8% a year for ten years, which is 10.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+8.5% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 80.4 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q4 2026 (May 31) Durability 91 of 100 Demandingness 80 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +28.6%, 3-year average +27.1%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +15.7% Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +16.7% Growth the price implies +18.8% a year Revenue growth on file +8.5% a year Prices frozen Share price: 212.32, Session close of 2026-10-15 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 769.33
RDDT	Buy, watch	October 12, 2026	154.01	October 12, 2026	778.14	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 68.4 of 100 because return on invested capital is +19.4% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is growing at 6.3% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +36.7%. Return on invested capital: one filed year is on record (+19.4%), so there is no average or direction, and the latest year is used. The price implies free cash flow growth of +12.8% a year for ten years, which is 36.1% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+48.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 68 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital: one filed year on record, +19.4% Share count, yearly change +6.3% Trailing free cash flow margin +36.7% Growth the price implies +12.8% a year Revenue growth on file +48.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 154.01, Session close of 2026-10-12 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 778.14 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: the share count is already growing faster than 5% a year (latest yearly change +6.3%).
QCOM	High-conviction buy	October 12, 2026	173.47	October 12, 2026	778.14	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Rationale Business durability scores 95.1 of 100 because return on invested capital is +30.8% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +29.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.4% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +30.8%, 3-year average +26.7%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +6.0% a year for ten years, which is 5.9% a year faster than revenue has been growing (+0.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 39.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 95 of 100 Demandingness 40 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +30.8%, 3-year average +26.7%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +29.7% Share count, yearly change -1.4% Trailing free cash flow margin +23.6% Growth the price implies +6.0% a year Revenue growth on file +0.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 173.47, Session close of 2026-10-12 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 778.14
PGR	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	216.12	October 8, 2026	774.48	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +33.2% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +25.3% a year. The price is 3.57 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +20.3% a year, against +33.2% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Filed revenue is 3.13 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +35.8% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +25.3% a year. Return on equity: latest +40.5%, 3-year average +33.2%, weighted +35.8%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 3.66 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +20.6% a year, against +35.8% earned. That is a demandingness score of 15 of 100. Filed revenue is 3.13 per dollar of equity, above the 0.50 to 2 range this standard treats as ordinary. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 88 of 100 Demandingness 15 of 100 Return on equity: latest +40.5%, 3-year average +33.2%, weighted +35.8%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Combined ratio, as reported: not shown. Not read for this company yet: the wording of its combined ratio disclosure has not been checked, and a figure is never guessed. Prices frozen Share price: 216.12, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.48 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: filed revenue per dollar of equity is already above 3 (latest 3.13).
CB	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	336.96	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version insurer-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, insurer-v3) Return on equity is +15.5% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +15.7% a year. The price is 1.70 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.8% a year, against +15.5% earned. That is a demandingness score of 34 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, insurer-v4) Return on equity is +15.3% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +15.7% a year. Return on equity: latest +15.0%, 3-year average +15.5%, weighted +15.3%, direction: flat. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.72 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +12.9% a year, against +15.3% earned. That is a demandingness score of 35.8 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 89 of 100 Demandingness 36 of 100 Return on equity: latest +15.0%, 3-year average +15.5%, weighted +15.3%, direction: flat Reported readings, not scored Property and casualty combined ratio, as reported: 85.7% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 83.8% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2023 86.5%, 2024 86.6%.Filed February 27, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 336.96, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
BF-B	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	26.29	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 83 of 100 because return on invested capital is +14.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +27.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.6%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.7% a year for ten years, which is 4.1% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-2.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 29.2 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 83 of 100 because return on invested capital is +14.9% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +27.0% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.5% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +23.6%. Return on invested capital: latest +14.9%, 3-year average +15.3%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.8% a year for ten years, which is 4.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-2.4% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 29.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q1 2027 (July 31) Durability 83 of 100 Demandingness 30 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +14.9%, 3-year average +15.3%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +27.0% Share count, yearly change -1.5% Trailing free cash flow margin +23.6% Growth the price implies +1.8% a year Revenue growth on file -2.4% a year Prices frozen Share price: 26.29, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16
GEV	Buy, watch	October 8, 2026	1008.86	October 8, 2026	774.46	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 92.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +37.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +30.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.9% a year for ten years, which is 0.8% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+8.7% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 44.8 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 92.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +37.3% against a stated +10% cost of capital; the share count is shrinking at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +30.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +37.3%, 3-year average +11.6%, direction: improving. The latest year and the average are 25.7 points apart. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +8.8% a year for ten years, in line with the revenue growth already on file (+8.7% a year). That is a demandingness score of 46.9 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 93 of 100 Demandingness 47 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +37.3%, 3-year average +11.6%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Share count, yearly change -0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +30.1% Growth the price implies +8.8% a year Revenue growth on file +8.7% a year Prices frozen Share price: 1008.86, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 774.46
CMCSA	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	20.85	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 74.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +14.3%. The price implies free cash flow growth of -14.4% a year for ten years, which is 15.0% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+0.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 74.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +8.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is shrinking at 5.1% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +14.3%. Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, direction: deteriorating. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of -15.1% a year for ten years, which is 15.7% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+0.6% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 0 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 74 of 100 Demandingness 0 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +8.7%, 3-year average +9.9%, direction: deteriorating (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +22.9% Share count, yearly change -5.1% Trailing free cash flow margin +14.3% Growth the price implies -15.1% a year Revenue growth on file +0.6% a year Prices frozen Share price: 20.85, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +8.7%).
BIIB	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	218.95	October 8, 2026	775.16	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 73.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is growing at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +24.8%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +2.4% a year for ten years, which is 3.3% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 31 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 73.9 of 100 because return on invested capital is +9.6% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +22.9% a year; the share count is growing at 0.6% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +24.8%. Return on invested capital: latest +9.6%, 3-year average +9.2%, direction: flat. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +1.8% a year for ten years, which is 2.7% a year faster than revenue has been growing (-0.9% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 29.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 74 of 100 Demandingness 30 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +9.6%, 3-year average +9.2%, direction: flat (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +22.9% Share count, yearly change +0.6% Trailing free cash flow margin +24.8% Growth the price implies +1.8% a year Revenue growth on file -0.9% a year Prices frozen Share price: 218.95, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.16 Already broken at freeze Already-broken watch conditions are alerts. They flag that a stated disconfirm threshold was already crossed on the latest filings when this call was issued. They do not by themselves change the published verdict. Already broken: return on invested capital is already below the stated +10% cost of capital (latest +9.6%).
FICO	High-conviction buy	October 8, 2026	701.88	October 8, 2026	775.09	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, v3) Business durability scores 96.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +65.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +16.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +40.1%. The price implies free cash flow growth of +7.9% a year for ten years, which is 5.2% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+13.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 29.7 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, v4) Business durability scores 96.3 of 100 because return on invested capital is +65.7% against a stated +10% cost of capital; owner free cash flow per share is changing at +16.7% a year; the share count is shrinking at 1.9% a year; trailing free cash flow margin is +40.1%. Return on invested capital: latest +65.7%, 3-year average +55.8%, direction: improving. The call reads the latest year. The price implies free cash flow growth of +5.4% a year for ten years, which is 7.6% a year slower than revenue has been growing (+13.1% a year on file). That is a demandingness score of 23.6 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through fiscal Q3 2026 (June 30) Durability 96 of 100 Demandingness 24 of 100 Return on invested capital: latest +65.7%, 3-year average +55.8%, direction: improving (the call reads the latest year) Owner free cash flow per share, yearly change +16.7% Share count, yearly change -1.9% Trailing free cash flow margin +40.1% Growth the price implies +5.4% a year Revenue growth on file +13.1% a year Prices frozen Share price: 701.88, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.09
BAC	Hold, no edge	October 8, 2026	52.48	October 8, 2026	775.34	12 months
Grades rate the business. The verdict prices it. Amended on 2026-10-08 (rules version bank-v4). The original frozen rationale is preserved above; the amended text follows. Original rationale (at freeze, bank-v3) Return on equity is +9.9% (average over 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +7.9% a year. The price is 1.40 times book (common equity per share at March 31, 2026). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.6% a year, against +9.9% earned. That is a demandingness score of 56 of 100. Amended rationale (2026-10-08, bank-v4) Return on equity is +10.1% (weighted toward the latest of 3 filed years) against the 10% cost of capital, and book value per share is changing at +7.9% a year. Return on equity: latest +10.6%, 3-year average +9.9%, weighted +10.1%, direction: improving. Weighted 50% latest year, 30% prior, 20% oldest. The price is 1.33 times book (common equity per share at June 30, 2026, preferred stock carried forward from March 31, 2026, its share count unchanged). At a 10% discount rate that price requires a return on equity of +11.3% a year, against +10.1% earned. That is a demandingness score of 54.5 of 100. Inputs at freeze Data: filings through Q2 2026 (June 30) Durability 68 of 100 Demandingness 55 of 100 Return on equity: latest +10.6%, 3-year average +9.9%, weighted +10.1%, direction: improving Reported readings, not scored Efficiency ratio, as filed: 61.6% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 59.0% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2020 64.6%, 2021 67.0%, 2022 64.7%, 2023 64.1%, 2024 63.1%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Common equity tier 1 ratio: 11.4% as of December 31, 2025.Earlier year ends: 2024 11.9%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Net interest margin, as reported: 2.01% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025; 2.08% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Earlier years: 2023 2.08%, 2024 1.95%.Filed February 25, 2026 (form 10-K). Prices frozen Share price: 52.48, Session close of 2026-10-08 S&P 500 entry (SPY): 775.34

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Source: company filings via Yahoo Finance fundamentals, live prices via Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 via the SPY fund. Rules version v6. Returns are price only.