Treasury Yields
The Treasury yield curve as of September 15, 2026, what it implies for future rates by arbitrage, and how much each tenor has actually been moving. Sourced directly from the United States Treasury, not from a rate ticker that skips the tenors most often asked about.
Today's curve
| Tenor | Yield | Change since prior session |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 4.67% | +2 basis points |
| 10-year | 5.00% | +3 basis points |
| 20-year | 5.40% | +3 basis points |
What the curve implies
Implied forward rates are the rates today's curve makes equivalent between two future financing paths. They are the expectation already priced into the market, arrived at by arbitrage, not a projection made by Quantamatica.
| Window | Implied rate | Versus the current rate at that starting tenor |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year rate, 1 year forward | 4.95% | +56 basis points |
| 1-year rate, 2 years forward | 4.94% | +27 basis points |
| 3-year rate, 2 years forward | 4.94% | +27 basis points |
| 5-year rate, 5 years forward | 5.17% | +34 basis points |
| 10-year rate, 10 years forward | 5.80% | +80 basis points |
Curve shape
Each spread against its own history. An inverted spread means the longer tenor yields less than the shorter one.
| Spread | Level | Shape | Percentile of its own history |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year to 10-year | +33 basis points | Normal | 64 percent |
| 10-year to 20-year | +40 basis points | Normal | 63 percent |
| 3-month to 10-year | +89 basis points | Normal | 88 percent |
Which tenor moves with policy
A measured regression of each tenor's daily change on the 3 month bill's, over the available history: near 1 at the short end, lower further out, where term premium rather than policy expectations sets more of the level. This describes how each tenor has moved, not how it must move.
| Tenor | Measured beta to the 3 month bill | Trading days measured |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year | 0.71 | 1,174 |
| 10-year | 0.47 | 1,174 |
| 20-year | 0.37 | 1,174 |
How much each tenor is moving, and how sticky that is
How violently a tenor is moving, and whether that state tends to persist, measured on its own history. Direction is deliberately not included here: measured next-day direction is not distinguishable from random for these tenors, so no arrow is offered.
Why there is no yield forecast
Yields are close to a random walk over the horizons a research page would quote, so a projected level would be a confident number with nothing behind it. What can be shown honestly is what is already priced today, and how much a tenor has been moving, both measured rather than guessed. Forwards here are computed from par yields rather than bootstrapped zero rates; over a curve this shape the difference is a few basis points, and the conventions a full bootstrap needs are not published in a free feed.
See Treasury yields beside the market
The Quantamatica app shows this beside live market data, the money supply, consumer and producer prices, and research on every stock you look at.
Source: U.S. Treasury daily par yield and real yield curves. Updated 2026-09-15.